Sunday, November 22, 2009

Nestle Said to Mull Cadbury Options, Kraft Challenge


Nestle Said to Mull Cadbury Options, Kraft Challenge

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Nestle SA is weighing options including a possible bid for Cadbury Plc that would challenge Kraft Foods Inc.’s offer and a potential move by Hershey Co., according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

Nestle is reviewing its options with bankers and may decide against a bid, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. Hershey and Ferrero SpA said in statements last week that they were also evaluating options. Ferrero, the maker of Nutella, is unlikely to proceed with an offer, said three people briefed on the situation.

Kraft’s unsolicited 10.4 billion pound ($17 billion) bid for Cadbury would create the largest maker of candy, threatening Nestle’s and Hershey’s market positions. Any bid by Nestle or Hershey may be countered with a higher offer from Kraft, which has never said its current cash-and-stock proposal is final. Nestle may also be constrained by antitrust concerns, as a combination with Cadbury would dominate some chocolate markets.

“How much do they want it?” said Jon Cox, an analyst at Kepler Capital Markets in Zurich, who recommends buying Nestle stock. “If they wanted it, they’d have it, it’s a bit of a slam dunk. Nestle has the financial resources.”

He said there has been speculation Hershey would be Nestle’s partner if needed given the “crown jewel” U.K. Cadbury business would give Nestle almost half of the market, potentially attracting the attention of regulators.

Competition Issues

“Nestle would face a host of market competition authority difficulty with chocolate,” said Thomas Russo, a partner at Lancaster, Pennsylvania-based Gardner Russo & Gardner, which holds Nestle, Cadbury and Kraft shares. “Gum itself may be an additive without any competition authority problems for Nestle because they are not in gum,” he said earlier this month.

Chewing gum accounts for 35 percent of Cadbury’s revenue.

Kraft’s bid values Cadbury at 726 pence a share, based on Nov. 20 closing stock prices. The London-based maker of Creme Eggs and Trident gum, which closed at 801 pence, has traded above the bid price since the offer was made.

“We’re not surprised there are rival bidders considering an offer given the attractiveness of Cadbury’s portfolio,” Erin Swanson, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Nestle hasn’t seemed interested in Cadbury, but from a defensive perspective, they could consider it and anything could happen.”

‘Only Offer’

Northfield, Illinois-based Kraft, the maker of Oreo cookies and processed cheese, rose 20 cents to $27.17 on Nov. 20 on the New York Stock Exchange. Hershey, based in the Pennsylvania town of the same name, added 4 cents to $37.18. It has a market value of $8.47 billion, compared with Kraft’s $40.1 billion.

“We’re the only offer on the table, and we’re confident we’re the best, most logical partner for Cadbury,” Mike Mitchell, a Kraft spokesman, said yesterday by e-mail.

Spokesmen for Hershey and Vevey, Switzerland-based Nestle declined to comment, as did a representative from Cadbury.

Hershey’s controlling trust wants the company to make a $17 billion offer, the Wall Street Journal reported Nov. 20.

In one possible scenario, Hershey would contribute at least $10 billion in cash and $2 billion in new shares, the Journal reported. Former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker Byron Trott is talking to investors about supplying an additional $3 billion to $5 billion in cash to help with the purchase, the newspaper said. The trust would sell assets, though it would try to maintain control of Hershey, the Journal said.

Nestle has an option to sell its majority stake in eye-care company Alcon Inc. to Novartis AG as early as January, and could use the proceeds, which may total more than $20 billion, to make acquisitions.

‘Out of the Water’

“That’s enough money to get you in the game for sure,” Brian Krawez, a senior research analyst at Scharf Investments in Santa Cruz, California, said in an interview earlier this month. “I think they could blow Kraft out of the water.” Krawez, who holds Cadbury and Nestle shares, has no Kraft stock.

Ferrero, the closely held candy maker based in Pino Torinese, Italy, is meeting in the coming days to make a decision on Cadbury, a person briefed on the matter said.

The only way Hershey, which makes and sells Cadbury brands in the U.S., could finance a bid is if the trust decided to move to a single-class share structure, relinquishing its control and making it easier to sell new stock, said Pablo Zuanic, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London.

The 104-year-old Hershey Trust, which funds a Pennsylvania school, canceled an auction for Hershey in 2002. It rejected a joint Cadbury-Nestle bid and another offer from Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co. following opposition in the company’s home state.

“The typical argument that gets companies into trouble is that this is a deal you cannot afford not to do,” Russo said. “Nestle generally has been able to steer clear of such entreaties and I suspect they will be again here. If they do act, it will be because they recognize an opportunity that’s core and strategic and properly valued.”

bloomberg

Spending by Consumers Probably Increased: U.S. Economy Preview


Spending by Consumers Probably Increased: U.S. Economy Preview

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending probably rebounded in October, showing that mounting unemployment is restraining, not derailing, the biggest part of the U.S. economy, analysts said before reports this week.

Purchases increased 0.5 percent after dropping by the same amount in September, according to the median estimate of 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before a Commerce Department report due Nov. 25. Other figures may show orders for durable goods and home sales climbed.

Consumers added to their wardrobes, frequented restaurants and bought more automobiles last month even after the government’s trade-in incentive expired. A jobless rate that is projected to remain above 10 percent through the first half of next year means households will still be hard-pressed to boost spending further, limiting their contribution to growth.

“A business recovery has taken root, notably in output and sales, although not yet in employment,” said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “The recovery will likely be mediocre relative to previous recoveries following severe recessions.”

The labor market and reduced bank lending are some of the “headwinds” facing the economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week. To help ensure the economy doesn’t falter, Bernanke and his fellow U.S. central bankers will probably keep monetary policy unchanged well into 2010.

Vehicle Sales Rise

Auto industry data show sales of cars and light trucks rose to a 10.5 million unit annual pace in October, up 14 percent from the previous month. Purchases were still short of the 14.1 million rate reached in August when the government’s cash-for- clunkers plan, which expired near the end of that month, revived demand.

U.S. retailers last month increased sales 1.4 percent after a decline of 2.3 percent in September, according to Commerce Department figures released Nov. 16. Sales rose at department stores, restaurants and Internet-based businesses such as Amazon.com.

Most retailers have boosted profits by trimming costs and inventories. Saks Inc., the New York-based U.S. luxury retail chain, last week reported an unexpected profit, its first in more than a year, for the period ended Oct. 31.

“The current economic and retail environment remain uncertain,” Saks Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Stephen Sadove said on a Nov. 17 conference call with investors and analysts. “It’s a fragile period for everyone in this industry.”

Incomes Rise

The Commerce Department spending report on Nov. 25 may also show incomes grew 0.2 percent in October, the biggest gain in five months, after no change the previous month.

Even with that gain, a weak labor market continues to weigh on consumers’ ability to boost purchases. Payrolls fell by 190,000 last month, bringing total job losses to 7.3 million since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any contraction since the Great Depression.

President Barack Obama, seeking to halve job losses since the recession began, announced on Nov. 12 that he plans to hold a White House jobs summit. He said he’ll convene business executives and experts to seek solutions to spur job creation.

The job cuts are causing measures of consumers’ outlooks to weaken this month. The Conference Board’s confidence index, due Nov. 24, is forecast to fall, and the Reuters/University of Michigan gauge the next day is projected to drop from the previous month.

The S&P 500 rose as much as 64 percent from a 12-year low in March, closing at a 13-month high on Nov. 17.

Durable Goods

The increase in demand for automobiles likely contributed to a gain in bookings at factories. Orders for durable goods, those meant to last at least three years, probably rose 0.5 percent in October after a 1.4 percent surge, the first back-to- back increase since May, according to the median estimate ahead of a Nov. 25 report from the Commerce Department.

Excluding demand for transportation equipment, which tends to be volatile, orders probably increased 0.6 percent, the survey median showed.

The government’s revised figures for third-quarter gross domestic product, due on Nov. 24, may show the economy expanded at a 2.9 percent annual rate, compared with the 3.5 percent estimated last month, according to the survey median. The revision will reflect a bigger trade gap and weaker retail sales in September, economists said.

The worst housing slump in more than 70 years is showing signs of improvement, with government support in the form of a tax credit for homebuyers.

Existing Home Sales

The National Association of Realtors is expected to report tomorrow that purchases of existing homes rose 2.3 percent in October to an annual pace of 5.7 million, the highest level since July 2007, according to the survey median.

The Commerce Department on Nov. 25 may report that purchases of new houses rose 0.8 percent last month to a 405,000 annual pace, according to the Bloomberg survey median.

A measure of home prices is projected to fall at a slower pace. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas was probably down 9.1 percent in September from a year earlier, the smallest decline in almost two years, the survey showed. The report is due on Nov. 24.



Bloomberg Survey
===============================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
===============================================================
Exist Homes Mlns 11/23 Oct. 5.57 5.70
Exist Homes MOM% 11/23 Oct. 9.4% 2.3%
GDP Annual QOQ% 11/24 3Q P 3.5% 2.9%
Personal Consump. QOQ% 11/24 3Q P 3.4% 3.2%
GDP Prices QOQ% 11/24 3Q P 0.8% 0.8%
Core PCE Prices QOQ% 11/24 3Q P 1.4% 1.4%
Case Shiller Quarterly 11/24 3Q -14.9% -10.5%
Case Shiller Quarterly 11/24 3Q 132.6 136.6
Case Shiller Monthly YO 11/24 Sept. -11.3% -9.1%
Case Shiller Monthly In 11/24 Sept. 146.0 147.0
Consumer Conf Index 11/24 Nov. 47.7 47.5
Richmond Fed Index 11/24 Nov. 7 8
FHFA HPI MOM% 11/24 Sept. -0.3% 0.1%
OFHEO HPI QOQ% 11/24 3Q -0.7% 0.4%
ABC Conf Index 11/24 Nov. 23 -45 -45
Pers Inc MOM% 11/25 Oct. 0.0% 0.2%
Pers Spend MOM% 11/25 Oct. -0.5% 0.5%
PCE Deflator YOY% 11/25 Oct. -0.5% 0.1%
Core PCE Prices MOM% 11/25 Oct. 0.1% 0.1%
Core PCE Prices YOY% 11/25 Oct. 1.3% 1.4%
Durables Orders MOM% 11/25 Oct. 1.4% 0.5%
Durables Ex-Trans MOM% 11/25 Oct. 1.2% 0.6%
Initial Claims ,000’s 11/25 14-Nov 505 500
Cont. Claims ,000’s 11/25 7-Nov 5611 5565
New Home Sales ,000’s 11/25 Oct. 402 405
New Home Sales MOM% 11/25 Oct. -3.6% 0.8%
U of Mich Conf. Index 11/25 Nov. F 66.0 67.0

bloomberg

«Αναπόφευκτο το κλείσιμο εργοστασίων του ομίλου Fiat»


«Αναπόφευκτο το κλείσιμο εργοστασίων του ομίλου Fiat»


«Αναπόφευκτο» είναι σύμφωνα με τον επικεφαλής του ομίλου Fiat Σέρτζιο Μαρτσιόνε, το κλείσιμο ορισμένων από τα εργοστάσια της αυτοκινητοβιομηχανίας στην Ιταλία εξαιτίας της ραγδαίας μείωσης στις πωλήσεις οχημάτων.


Οπως επεσήμανε ο Μαρτσιόνε, δεν είναι δυνατόν να συνεχίσουν να λειτουργούν και τα έξι εργοστάσια που διατηρεί η FIAT στη χώρα, ούτε αυτή η στρατηγική επιλογή θα υπάκουε στη «βιομηχανική λογική».


Εκτιμάται ότι ένα από τα εργοστάσια που θα κλείσουν θα είναι αυτό της Σικελίας, παρά την προσφορά από μέρους της τοπικής αυτοδιοίκησης να διατεθούν 400 εκατ. ευρώ για τη διάσωση και τη συνέχιση λειτουργίας του.


«Έχουμε έξι εργοστάσια στην Ιταλία και παράγουμε συνολικά την ίδια ποσότητα [οχημάτων] που παράγει ένα εργοστάσιο στη Βραζιλία», σημείωσε ο επικεφαλής της FIAT.


Ο Μαρτσιόνε σχεδιάζει να συζητήσει τον Δεκέμβριο τα σχέδιά του για την αναδιοργάνωση της ιταλικής αυτοκινητοβιομηχανίας με τον πρωθυπουργό Σίλβιο Μπερλουσκόνι. Όπως εκτικά η FIAT «δεν θα χρειαστεί άλλες συμμαχίες», καθώς η νέα της σχέση με την Chrysler των ΗΠΑ θεωρείται επαρκής.

Επίσης, όπως έκανε γνωστό, οι πωλήσεις αυτοκινήτων για το μήνα Νοέμβριο βρίσκονται στο αναμενόμενο επίπεδο και επιβεβαίωσε τις προβλέψεις για τις πωλήσεις του ομίλου το τρέχον έτος.

naftemporiki
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