Thursday, March 11, 2010
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Increase at Slowest Pace in Four Years
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Increase at Slowest Pace in Four Years
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. foreclosure filings rose at the slowest pace in four years in February as the government sought to reduce record bank seizures, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
A total of 308,524 properties received a notice of default, auction or seizure last month, or one in 418 households, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said today in a statement. Filings rose 6 percent from a year earlier, the smallest increase since RealtyTrac began tracking annual changes in January 2006. They declined 2 percent from January.
The Obama administration’s main effort to keep people in their homes resulted in more than 830,000 trial loan modifications for delinquent borrowers through January, according to the Treasury Department. Still, filings were up for the 50th straight month in February on an annual basis and topped 300,000 for the 12th consecutive month, RealtyTrac said.
“This leveling of the foreclosure trend is not necessarily evidence that fewer homeowners are in distress and at risk for foreclosure, but rather that foreclosure prevention programs, legislation and other processing delays are in effect capping monthly foreclosure activity,” RealtyTrac Chief Executive Officer James J. Saccacio said in a statement.
About 116,000 mortgages have been permanently modified under the government’s program, compared with as many as 4 million targeted by December 2012. New data will be released March 15, Meg Reilly, a Treasury spokeswoman, said in an e-mail.
Bank Repossessions
Bank seizures are increasing the number of homes for sale. Lenders took back 78,683 properties last month, up 6 percent from February 2009 and down 15 percent from a peak in December, RealtyTrac said. More than 2 million empty homes were on the market in the fourth quarter, according to the Census Bureau.
“Government programs are helping to keep more supply from coming out,” Brian Bethune, chief financial economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said in an interview. “We’ve got a disjointed market where most of the housing supply is coming from foreclosures rather than building new homes.”
Bethune predicted a “high” rate of foreclosures for at least the next 12 months. RealtyTrac expects record bank seizures this year, said Rick Sharga, executive vice president for marketing.
Default notices totaled 106,208 in February, down 3 percent from a year earlier and up 3 percent from January, RealtyTrac said. Defaults peaked at more than 142,000 in April.
Scheduled auctions totaled 123,633 last month, up 16 percent from February 2009 and down 1 percent from January. The peak was more than 144,000 in August.
Nevada, California
Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate for the 38th straight month in February, with one in 102 households receiving a filing. Arizona and Florida tied for second at one in 163 households.
California ranked fourth at one in 195 households, followed by Michigan at one in 226. Utah, Idaho, Illinois, Georgia and Maryland rounded out the 10 highest foreclosure rates.
The most filings were in California, with 68,562, down 15 percent from a year earlier. Florida was second with 54,032, up 16 percent, and Michigan was third at 20,028, a 59 percent rise.
Illinois had the fourth-highest total filings with 17,312, Arizona had 16,718 and Texas had 12,638. The six states accounted for 61 percent of the U.S. total, RealtyTrac said.
Georgia, Ohio, Nevada and Maryland rounded out the top 10.
New York Area
Filings rose 14 percent from a year earlier to 3,750 in New Jersey. They climbed 3.3 percent to 2,294 in Connecticut, and dropped 20 percent to 3,237 in New York.
Las Vegas had the highest foreclosure rate for cities with a population of more than 200,000. One in 90 households there got a filing. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida, was second at one in 92.
Six metro areas in California or Arizona had decreases in filings from January, with Phoenix showing the biggest drop at almost 18 percent.
Port St. Lucie, Florida, showed a 66 percent increase, said RealtyTrac, which sells default data collected from more than 2,200 counties representing 90 percent of the U.S. population.
source: bloomberg.com
Naked Swaps Crackdown in Europe Rings Hollow Without Washington
Naked Swaps Crackdown in Europe Rings Hollow Without Washington
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- European politicians and regulators could initiate a continent-wide ban on speculative trading of sovereign credit-default swaps tomorrow. Making it stick without the Americans won’t work.
New York and London dominate swaps trading, and both have resisted greater regulation. Last year, U.S. regulators and Congress rejected a proposed ban on buying credit-default swaps without owning the underlying debt. Adair Turner, chairman of the U.K. Financial Services Authority, said yesterday that these so-called naked swaps weren’t the “key driver” of the Greek debt crisis and it would be wrong to rush to ban them.
“You need to get the U.S. on board, otherwise the effect will be minimal because trading will simply move elsewhere,” said Jan Hagen, head of the financial services group at the European School of Management and Technology in Berlin. “A ban would allow European politicians to tell voters at least they’re doing something.”
The European Union’s top regulatory official, European Commission President Jose Barroso, said March 9 that the 27- nation bloc will consider banning “purely speculative naked” credit-default swaps after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy called for a crackdown on derivatives trading to prevent a rerun of the Greek crisis.
Papandreou, Obama
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, who met this week in Washington with U.S. President Barack Obama and U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, has been campaigning against “unprincipled speculators,” saying they threaten a new global financial crisis. In an interview with PBS NewsHour, Papandreou compared his country’s predicament to that of short-sellers targeting Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., saying any country could become the next “target.”
Obama made no statement after the meeting. His spokesman, Robert Gibbs, said the administration believes the European Union should take the lead in dealing with the Greek crisis.
U.S. and U.K. regulators, who imposed temporary bans on short-selling financial stocks after Wall Street executives led by John Mack, CEO at Morgan Stanley at the time, called for emergency measures following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, never halted trading of naked credit-default swaps. Geithner has said he doesn’t think such a measure would have merit.
“My own sense is that banning naked swaps is not necessary and wouldn’t help fundamentally,” Geithner told lawmakers on March 26, 2009. “It’s too hard to distinguish what is a legitimate hedge that has some economic value from what people might just feel is a speculative bet on some future outcome.”
‘Implemented Immediately’
A Europe-wide ban on naked swaps “could be implemented immediately” under the EU’s Market Abuse Directive, said Simon Gleeson, financial-regulatory partner at Clifford Chance LLP in London. Such action would be tested in the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg, with a verdict likely “to take six years,” he said.
For now, talk by Merkel and others of bans and tough regulation is designed “to frighten the hedge funds off the trades,” Gleeson said.
EU finance ministers meet March 16 to discuss a ban, and leaders of the Group of 20 nations will discuss the issue in June. Without simultaneous restrictions in the U.S., a European ban “wouldn’t be very effective,” Nicolas Veron, senior economist at Bruegel, a Brussels-based research organization, said in a telephone interview.
Trading Is Mobile
“Trading would just migrate to countries where no ban exists,” he said. “If you tell your own banks, ‘I’ll crush you if you trade in other countries,’ you would put your domestic banks at an economic disadvantage to others.”
Credit-default swaps are derivatives that pay the buyer face value if a borrower -- a country or a company -- defaults. In exchange, the swap seller gets the underlying securities or the cash equivalent. Traders in naked credit-default swaps buy insurance on bonds they don’t own. The contracts trade in over- the-counter deals, leaving each side exposed to the risk their partner will default.
Swaps are private contracts and most aren’t traded through clearinghouses, making it difficult for regulators to police a ban and for politicians to define which trades are purely speculative.
“There’s no framework for that to be done right now,” said Brian Yelvington, head of fixed-income strategy at Greenwich, Connecticut-based broker-dealer Knight Libertas LLC and a former swaps trader.
Regulation Fizzles
While the U.S. Congress is discussing legislation that would require some derivatives be backed by clearinghouses and traded on regulated platforms, talk about banning naked credit- default swaps has fizzled.
In July 2009, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said prohibiting the trades was “on the table” in new financial regulatory legislation. A draft bill released in October was watered down to give regulators authority to prohibit so-called abusive swaps, or any swap “that would be detrimental to the stability of a financial market or of participants in the financial market.”
That provision was later erased, with Frank explaining “there was concern that a broad grant to ban abusive swaps would be unsettling.”
Swaps Volume Small
If credit-default swaps traders fueled the sell-off in Greek bonds, they did it by wagering an amount that’s about 3 percent of the government’s total debt, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Credit-default swaps tied to a net $9 billion of Greek debt were outstanding as of March 5, according to the New York-based Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., which runs a central registry that captures the majority of trading in the market. That compares with about $271 billion of Greek debt, International Monetary Fund data show.
There were swaps on a net $109 billion of 10 European nations, including Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland, less than 1 percent of the countries’ combined debt.
Contradicting claims that derivatives trading exacerbated the Greek debt crisis, German financial regulator BaFin said on March 8 that market data didn’t show evidence that credit- default swaps were used to speculate against Greek bonds. Data provided by the Depository Trust didn’t indicate “massive speculative action,” BaFin said.
‘Throwing Some Fog’
“Politicians are blaming speculators even though there’s no fundamental data to support it,” European School of Management’s Hagen said. “At the moment, Merkel and Sarkozy are throwing some fog and trying to deviate attention from the underlying issue, which is Greece’s deficit.”
Germany’s Association of German Banks, which represents more than 220 private commercial banks including Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG, defended credit-default swaps as “an important instrument for the financial markets, e.g. for hedging purposes.”
“At the same time we agree that the market needs more transparency,” the association said in a statement on March 9.
German banks had foreign claims of $43.2 billion related to Greece on Sept. 30, behind France and Switzerland, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.
Credit-default swaps are an important market indicator for the health of a country or company, and so-called speculators helped bring Greece’s debt problems to politicians’ attention, forcing them to get their deficit under control, said Hans-Peter Burghof, professor of banking and financial services at the University of Hohenheim in Stuttgart, Germany. After the Greek government announced a reasonable budget plan, the speculation stopped, he said.
“You shouldn’t kill the messenger,” Burghof said.
Greek Deficits
Greece posted a budget deficit of 12.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, more than four times the EU’s 3 percent limit, raising concerns it may be unable to repay its debt. Investors have become less skittish after Greece announced 4.8 billion euros ($6.6 billion) of additional budget cuts and sold 5 billion euros of bonds last week.
The risk premium investors demand to buy Greek 10-year debt over comparable German bonds, the European benchmark, fell 4 basis points to 309 basis points yesterday. That is down from a high of 396 basis points on Jan. 28, though still more than twice the level at the start of November. Spreads on Spanish and Portuguese bonds have also widened.
Soros, Munger
This isn’t the first time regulators have blamed credit- default-swaps traders for exacerbating market declines. New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo started an investigation in September 2008 into whether trading in the swaps was manipulated to spread rumors about financial firms and drive down stock prices amid the credit crisis that led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Richard Bamberger, a spokesman for Cuomo, didn’t respond to a request for comment on the status of the investigation.
Others in the U.S. including hedge-fund billionaire George Soros have called for greater transparency and limits on trading naked swaps. Charles Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in Omaha, Nebraska, wants an outright ban on trading. Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, repeated calls this week to give regulators the authority to police the market for “fraud, manipulation and other abuses.”
Brevan Howard
Hedge-fund firms betting on a Greek default would have lost 8.8 percent in February, according to CMA Datavision pricing on Bloomberg. Some funds that made money on the trade placed those bets years ago.
Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, Europe’s largest hedge- fund firm, and Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital Management LP, are among hedge funds that have told investors they’re not betting against Greece or its CDS.
“The short trade in these credits is extended, crowded, fully prices the fundamentals and is exposed to a regulatory squeeze,” Brevan Howard said in an investor letter last month.
German and French banks may have the most at risk in Greece, Portugal and Spain, adding to pressure on Merkel and Sarkozy to take action. German banks had foreign claims of $330.8 billion and French lenders $306.8 billion related to the three countries on Sept. 30, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That compares with $156.3 billion at U.K. lenders, the data show.
“Greece is the first line of defense, and Berlin and Paris want to send a warning signal to speculators to stop the crisis from spreading to bigger countries such as Spain,” Burghof, the University of Hohenheim professor, said.
‘Not as Pressing’
Greece’s troubles don’t resonate the same way in the U.S., said Raj Date, executive director of the Cambridge Winter Center for Financial Institutions Policy in New York.
“For the Europeans, there are a lot of here-and-now issues with respect to Greece which are not as pressing for American policy makers,” Date said.
The world’s five biggest CDS dealers are JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Barclays Plc, according to a report by Deutsche Bank Research, citing the European Central Bank and filings by the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission. The measurement is in terms of CDS notional amounts bought and sold.
Still, Germany’s Merkel has signaled that Europe would go ahead alone with a ban on naked swaps even while acknowledging that a similar move in the U.S. is needed.
“We know that this also has to happen in the American area, because Europe is one thing and America is another, but we think that a first step here in the European Union would be helpful,” Merkel said in Luxembourg on March 9.
source: bloomberg.com
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- European politicians and regulators could initiate a continent-wide ban on speculative trading of sovereign credit-default swaps tomorrow. Making it stick without the Americans won’t work.
New York and London dominate swaps trading, and both have resisted greater regulation. Last year, U.S. regulators and Congress rejected a proposed ban on buying credit-default swaps without owning the underlying debt. Adair Turner, chairman of the U.K. Financial Services Authority, said yesterday that these so-called naked swaps weren’t the “key driver” of the Greek debt crisis and it would be wrong to rush to ban them.
“You need to get the U.S. on board, otherwise the effect will be minimal because trading will simply move elsewhere,” said Jan Hagen, head of the financial services group at the European School of Management and Technology in Berlin. “A ban would allow European politicians to tell voters at least they’re doing something.”
The European Union’s top regulatory official, European Commission President Jose Barroso, said March 9 that the 27- nation bloc will consider banning “purely speculative naked” credit-default swaps after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy called for a crackdown on derivatives trading to prevent a rerun of the Greek crisis.
Papandreou, Obama
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, who met this week in Washington with U.S. President Barack Obama and U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, has been campaigning against “unprincipled speculators,” saying they threaten a new global financial crisis. In an interview with PBS NewsHour, Papandreou compared his country’s predicament to that of short-sellers targeting Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., saying any country could become the next “target.”
Obama made no statement after the meeting. His spokesman, Robert Gibbs, said the administration believes the European Union should take the lead in dealing with the Greek crisis.
U.S. and U.K. regulators, who imposed temporary bans on short-selling financial stocks after Wall Street executives led by John Mack, CEO at Morgan Stanley at the time, called for emergency measures following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, never halted trading of naked credit-default swaps. Geithner has said he doesn’t think such a measure would have merit.
“My own sense is that banning naked swaps is not necessary and wouldn’t help fundamentally,” Geithner told lawmakers on March 26, 2009. “It’s too hard to distinguish what is a legitimate hedge that has some economic value from what people might just feel is a speculative bet on some future outcome.”
‘Implemented Immediately’
A Europe-wide ban on naked swaps “could be implemented immediately” under the EU’s Market Abuse Directive, said Simon Gleeson, financial-regulatory partner at Clifford Chance LLP in London. Such action would be tested in the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg, with a verdict likely “to take six years,” he said.
For now, talk by Merkel and others of bans and tough regulation is designed “to frighten the hedge funds off the trades,” Gleeson said.
EU finance ministers meet March 16 to discuss a ban, and leaders of the Group of 20 nations will discuss the issue in June. Without simultaneous restrictions in the U.S., a European ban “wouldn’t be very effective,” Nicolas Veron, senior economist at Bruegel, a Brussels-based research organization, said in a telephone interview.
Trading Is Mobile
“Trading would just migrate to countries where no ban exists,” he said. “If you tell your own banks, ‘I’ll crush you if you trade in other countries,’ you would put your domestic banks at an economic disadvantage to others.”
Credit-default swaps are derivatives that pay the buyer face value if a borrower -- a country or a company -- defaults. In exchange, the swap seller gets the underlying securities or the cash equivalent. Traders in naked credit-default swaps buy insurance on bonds they don’t own. The contracts trade in over- the-counter deals, leaving each side exposed to the risk their partner will default.
Swaps are private contracts and most aren’t traded through clearinghouses, making it difficult for regulators to police a ban and for politicians to define which trades are purely speculative.
“There’s no framework for that to be done right now,” said Brian Yelvington, head of fixed-income strategy at Greenwich, Connecticut-based broker-dealer Knight Libertas LLC and a former swaps trader.
Regulation Fizzles
While the U.S. Congress is discussing legislation that would require some derivatives be backed by clearinghouses and traded on regulated platforms, talk about banning naked credit- default swaps has fizzled.
In July 2009, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said prohibiting the trades was “on the table” in new financial regulatory legislation. A draft bill released in October was watered down to give regulators authority to prohibit so-called abusive swaps, or any swap “that would be detrimental to the stability of a financial market or of participants in the financial market.”
That provision was later erased, with Frank explaining “there was concern that a broad grant to ban abusive swaps would be unsettling.”
Swaps Volume Small
If credit-default swaps traders fueled the sell-off in Greek bonds, they did it by wagering an amount that’s about 3 percent of the government’s total debt, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Credit-default swaps tied to a net $9 billion of Greek debt were outstanding as of March 5, according to the New York-based Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., which runs a central registry that captures the majority of trading in the market. That compares with about $271 billion of Greek debt, International Monetary Fund data show.
There were swaps on a net $109 billion of 10 European nations, including Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland, less than 1 percent of the countries’ combined debt.
Contradicting claims that derivatives trading exacerbated the Greek debt crisis, German financial regulator BaFin said on March 8 that market data didn’t show evidence that credit- default swaps were used to speculate against Greek bonds. Data provided by the Depository Trust didn’t indicate “massive speculative action,” BaFin said.
‘Throwing Some Fog’
“Politicians are blaming speculators even though there’s no fundamental data to support it,” European School of Management’s Hagen said. “At the moment, Merkel and Sarkozy are throwing some fog and trying to deviate attention from the underlying issue, which is Greece’s deficit.”
Germany’s Association of German Banks, which represents more than 220 private commercial banks including Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG, defended credit-default swaps as “an important instrument for the financial markets, e.g. for hedging purposes.”
“At the same time we agree that the market needs more transparency,” the association said in a statement on March 9.
German banks had foreign claims of $43.2 billion related to Greece on Sept. 30, behind France and Switzerland, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.
Credit-default swaps are an important market indicator for the health of a country or company, and so-called speculators helped bring Greece’s debt problems to politicians’ attention, forcing them to get their deficit under control, said Hans-Peter Burghof, professor of banking and financial services at the University of Hohenheim in Stuttgart, Germany. After the Greek government announced a reasonable budget plan, the speculation stopped, he said.
“You shouldn’t kill the messenger,” Burghof said.
Greek Deficits
Greece posted a budget deficit of 12.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, more than four times the EU’s 3 percent limit, raising concerns it may be unable to repay its debt. Investors have become less skittish after Greece announced 4.8 billion euros ($6.6 billion) of additional budget cuts and sold 5 billion euros of bonds last week.
The risk premium investors demand to buy Greek 10-year debt over comparable German bonds, the European benchmark, fell 4 basis points to 309 basis points yesterday. That is down from a high of 396 basis points on Jan. 28, though still more than twice the level at the start of November. Spreads on Spanish and Portuguese bonds have also widened.
Soros, Munger
This isn’t the first time regulators have blamed credit- default-swaps traders for exacerbating market declines. New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo started an investigation in September 2008 into whether trading in the swaps was manipulated to spread rumors about financial firms and drive down stock prices amid the credit crisis that led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Richard Bamberger, a spokesman for Cuomo, didn’t respond to a request for comment on the status of the investigation.
Others in the U.S. including hedge-fund billionaire George Soros have called for greater transparency and limits on trading naked swaps. Charles Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in Omaha, Nebraska, wants an outright ban on trading. Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, repeated calls this week to give regulators the authority to police the market for “fraud, manipulation and other abuses.”
Brevan Howard
Hedge-fund firms betting on a Greek default would have lost 8.8 percent in February, according to CMA Datavision pricing on Bloomberg. Some funds that made money on the trade placed those bets years ago.
Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, Europe’s largest hedge- fund firm, and Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital Management LP, are among hedge funds that have told investors they’re not betting against Greece or its CDS.
“The short trade in these credits is extended, crowded, fully prices the fundamentals and is exposed to a regulatory squeeze,” Brevan Howard said in an investor letter last month.
German and French banks may have the most at risk in Greece, Portugal and Spain, adding to pressure on Merkel and Sarkozy to take action. German banks had foreign claims of $330.8 billion and French lenders $306.8 billion related to the three countries on Sept. 30, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That compares with $156.3 billion at U.K. lenders, the data show.
“Greece is the first line of defense, and Berlin and Paris want to send a warning signal to speculators to stop the crisis from spreading to bigger countries such as Spain,” Burghof, the University of Hohenheim professor, said.
‘Not as Pressing’
Greece’s troubles don’t resonate the same way in the U.S., said Raj Date, executive director of the Cambridge Winter Center for Financial Institutions Policy in New York.
“For the Europeans, there are a lot of here-and-now issues with respect to Greece which are not as pressing for American policy makers,” Date said.
The world’s five biggest CDS dealers are JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Barclays Plc, according to a report by Deutsche Bank Research, citing the European Central Bank and filings by the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission. The measurement is in terms of CDS notional amounts bought and sold.
Still, Germany’s Merkel has signaled that Europe would go ahead alone with a ban on naked swaps even while acknowledging that a similar move in the U.S. is needed.
“We know that this also has to happen in the American area, because Europe is one thing and America is another, but we think that a first step here in the European Union would be helpful,” Merkel said in Luxembourg on March 9.
source: bloomberg.com
Trade Gap in U.S. Unexpectedly Falls as Imports Drop
Trade Gap in U.S. Unexpectedly Falls as Imports Drop
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly narrowed in January as demand for foreign oil and automobiles dropped.
The gap decreased 6.6 percent to $37.3 billion from a revised $39.9 billion in December as Americans imported the fewest barrels of crude oil in a decade, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Exports decreased 0.3 percent, the first decline since April, on fewer shipments of commercial aircraft and autos.
Imports may rebound in coming months as oil prices climb, consumer spending improves and a growing economy prompts companies to replenish depleted inventories. By the same token, the recovery in global growth and a weaker dollar is projected to lift overseas sales at manufacturers including Cisco Systems Inc., signaling factories will keep leading the U.S. expansion.
“We are starting to see a gradual recovery in global trade,” said Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, who projected the gap would narrow. “Consumers and businesses are dipping their toes back into spending here and abroad.”
Fewer Americans filed first-time claims for jobless benefits last week, a report from the Labor Department also showed. Initial applications dropped by 6,000 to 462,000 in the week ended March 6. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance increased, while those getting extended benefits fell.
Stocks, Dollar
Stock-index futures extended earlier losses and the dollar fell after the reports. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 0.3 percent to 1,141.8 at 8:56 a.m. in New York. The dollar bought 90.53 yen, erasing earlier gains and little changed from late yesterday.
The trade gap was projected to widen to $41 billion, from an initially reported $40.2 billion in December, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 73 economists. Projections ranged from deficits of $37 billion to $44 billion.
Exports decreased by $500 million to $142.7 billion. Auto demand from abroad fell by $544 million, while shipments of commercial aircraft declined by $474 million.
Fewer Planes
Sales of American-made planes may have rebounded last month. Boeing Co. delivered 23 aircraft for overseas buyers in January, down from 38 the prior month, according to figures from the Chicago-based company. Foreign deliveries climbed to 28 in February.
American-made goods have become more attractive for overseas buyers following a decline in the dollar last year. It has fallen about 11 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from the U.S.’s biggest trading partners from a five- year high reached on March 9, 2009.
“Rising exports will be an important driver for manufacturing,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.
San Jose, California-based Cisco, the biggest maker of networking equipment, said it sees “underlying strength” in the economy and that customers are saying they need to spend more on technology.
“We see very positive spending trends across all of our business segments” and across the world, Ned Hooper, who is in charge of Cisco’s consumer unit and mergers and acquisitions, said on March 3 at a conference in San Francisco.
Imports Fall
Imports fell 1.7 percent to $180 billion from $183.1 billion in December. The U.S. imported 245 million barrels of crude oil in January, the fewest since February 1999. The decrease swamped an increase in oil prices.
Purchases of foreign-made automobiles and parts dropped by $1.48 billion, led by decreases in purchases of German and Japanese cars.
After eliminating the influence of prices, which are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product, the trade deficit shrank to $41 billion from $43.8 billion. The January figure was in line with the fourth-quarter average, indicating trade so far is not influencing growth estimates.
The economy, emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s, expanded at a 5.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the most since 2003. Exports accounted for 2.32 percentage points of growth, the biggest contribution in 13 years.
Focus on Exports
President Barack Obama has said the U.S. needs to shift its growth toward expanding exports and investment rather than consumption as in the past. He plans to increase government- backed export financing for small businesses by 50 percent, to $6 billion a year.
Stronger overseas sales were one reason Parker Hannifin Corp., the world’s largest manufacturer of hydraulic equipment, raised its 2010 earnings estimate in January.
“We’re coming off the bottom,” Donald E. Washkewicz, chairman and chief executive officer of the Cleveland-based company, told analysts. “Asia is extremely strong.”
The International Monetary Fund, in a January report, projected that emerging-market and developing economies will expand 6 percent as a group this year, compared with 2.1 percent for developed nations.
Today’s report showed the trade gap with China was little changed at $18.3 billion from $18.1 billion in the prior month.
China, the world’s biggest exporter, this week reported its trade surplus shrank to the lowest level in a year in February as exports surged 46 percent from a year earlier, while imports rose 45 percent. The nation has prevented any rise in the yuan against the dollar since July 2008 to aid exporters.
source: bloomberg.com
Τα McDonalds κερδίζουν τη μάχη του fast food
Τα McDonalds κερδίζουν τη μάχη του fast food
Στην αρχή, η δύσκολη οικονομική συγκυρία σήμαινε σχετικά καλές ειδήσεις για τις αλυσίδες γρήγορου φαγητού, όπως τα McDonald’s (MCD) και τα Burger King (BKC), καθώς οι καταναλωτές με λίγα μετρητά απομακρύνθηκαν από τα πιο ακριβά γεύματα. Τώρα, καθώς το ποσοστό ανεργίας των ΗΠΑ παραμένει πολύ υψηλό, οι αλυσίδες αγωνίζονται να κάνουν τους Αμερικανούς να συνεχίσουν να τρώνε έξω.
«Έχουμε έναν πόλεμο τιμών,» λέει ο αναλυτής της Morningstar (MORN) RJ Hottovy. Τα Burger King, τα McDonald’s και τα Wendy’s (WEN)- τα οποία κατέχουν επίσης την αλυσίδα Arby- ψάχνουν τρόπους να προσφέρουν ειδικές προσφορές και να εισάγουν νέα προϊόντα.
Τα McDonald’s συνεχίζουν να έχουν το πλεονέκτημα. Στις 8 Μαρτίου η μεγάλη παγκόσμια αλυσίδα burger ανακοίνωσε αποτελέσματα πωλήσεων Φεβρουαρίου καλύτερα των εκτιμήσεων. Οι παγκόσμιες πωλήσεις της McDonald αυξήθηκαν 11,2% τον Φεβρουάριο. Οι πωλήσεις καταστημάτων στην Ασία αυξήθηκαν κατά 10,5%-η μεγαλύτερη αύξηση από τον Νοέμβριο του 2008-και στην Ευρώπη αυξήθηκαν 5,4%. Οι μετοχές της McDonald ενισχύθηκαν 2,28% σε 65,12 τη Δευτέρα.
Η McDonald’s ανακοίνωσε αύξηση 0,6% των πωλήσεων στις ΗΠΑ, παρά το κρύο και το χιόνι που έκοψε περίπου 2% από τις πωλήσεις στις ΗΠΑ, όπως είπε στο Bloomberg News εκπρόσωπος της McDonald.
Τα Burger King και Wendy’s δεν έχουν ανακοινώσει πωλήσεις Φεβρουαρίου. Στις 4, Μάρτη, η Wendy’s είπε πως οι πωλήσεις Ιανουαρίου της Arby μειώθηκαν 7,4%. Αυτό είναι καλύτερο από την πτώση 12,6% στις που ανακοίνωσε η Arby για το τέταρτο τρίμηνο του 2009-μία βελτίωση που σε δήλωσή της η εταιρεία απέδωσε σε ένα νέο μενού που είναι κοστίζει ένα δολάριο. Ένα φωτεινό σημείο για τη Wendy’s: Τον Ιανουάριο, οι πωλήσεις της αλυσίδας στη Βόρεια Αμερική αυξήθηκαν 0,3%.
«Εξακολουθούμε να πιστεύουμε πως [τα McDonald ΄s], θα συνεχίσει να αποκτούν μερίδιο στις ΗΠΑ,» δήλωσε ο αναλυτής της Morgan Stanley (MS) John Glass στις 8 Μαρτίου. Μεταξύ των καταλυτών της ανάπτυξης είναι η επέκταση της ποικιλίας των ροφημάτων των McCafe της McDonald’s αυτή την άνοιξη και η εισαγωγή των smoothies αυτό το καλοκαίρι, έγραψε ο Glass.
H «σχετική σταθερότητα» θέλγει τους επενδυτές
Οι επενδυτές φαίνεται να συμφωνούν ότι η McDonald ΄s κερδίζει την μάχη των fast food σε αυτή την ύφεση. Οι μετοχές της McDonald ενισχύονται 10,6% από τις αρχές του 2008, ενώ οι μετοχές της Wendy’s έχουν υποχωρήσει 46,4% και των Burger King 35,9%. Μέχρι στιγμής το 2010, η McDonald’s ενισχύεται 4,3%, ενώ οι Wendy’s και Burger King πέφτουν κατά 2,1%, και 2,7% αντίστοιχα.
«Οι επενδυτές θέλγονται από τη σχετική σταθερότητα της απόδοσης της McDonald’s,» έγραψε στις 8 Μαρτίου ο αναλυτής της Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC) Joseph T. Buckley.
To μέγεθος είναι ένα μεγάλο πλεονέκτημα για τη McDonald’s. Με 32.478 εστιατόρια σε όλο τον κόσμο-57% των οποίων εκτός της Βορείου Αμερικής- τα McDonald ΄s μπορούν να αξιοποιήσουν ευκαιρίες για μάρκετινγκ όπως οι Ολυμπιακοί Αγώνες. Οι διαφημίσεις για τα Chicken McNuggets που συνδέονταν με τους Χειμερινούς Αγώνες βοήθησαν τις πωλήσεις του περασμένου μήνα, είπε η McDonald’s. (Τα Burger King έχουν το 40% των εστιατορίων τους στο εξωτερικό, ενώ τα Wendy’s και τα Arby’s εδρεύουν σχεδόν αποκλειστικά στις ΗΠΑ.)
Τα McDonald ΄s «χρησιμοποιούν την κλίμακα μάρκετινγκ που διαθέτουν για να δώσουν έμφαση στο υπάρχων μήνυμά τους για την αξία,» έγραψε στις 8 Μαρτίου ο αναλυτής της Oppenheimer (ΟPΥ) Matthew DiFrisco. Ένας ισχυρός ισολογισμός και ταμειακές ροές συμβάλλουν στην περαιτέρω ανάπτυξη, σημειώνει.
Παρόλο που τα McDonald’s έχουν κυριαρχήσει στον ανταγωνισμό μέχρι στιγμής, τα Burger King και τα Wendy’s προσπαθούν να αντεπιτεθούν. Στελέχη και των δύο εταιρειών έχουν δηλώσει ότι βλέπουν μεγάλες ευκαιρίες να αναπτυχθούν σε διεθνές επίπεδο. Και οι δύο αλυσίδες έχουν προωθήσει φθηνά μενού.
Για τα εστιατόρια, η οικονομία των ΗΠΑ είναι το κλειδί
Παρά τις εκπτώσεις, οι αλυσίδες fast food προστάτεψαν τα περιθώρια κέρδους τους το 2009 μειώνοντας το κόστος και επωφελούμενες από τις χαμηλότερες τιμές των εμπορευμάτων. Αλλά με πολλές πιθανές περιστολές δαπανών να έχουν ήδη συμβεί και με τις τιμές των εμπορευμάτων πιθανόν να αυξηθούν, τα Wendy’s προειδοποίησαν ότι οι δαπάνες τους μπορούν να φτάσουν το 2% με 3% το 2010, ιδιαίτερα στο δεύτερο εξάμηνο του έτους.
Για τις αλυσίδες fast food-και το σύνολο της βιομηχανίας εστιατoρίων-το κλειδί παραμένει η κατεύθυνση της οικονομίας των ΗΠΑ. Τον Φεβρουάριο, το ποσοστό ανεργίας των ΗΠΑ παρέμεινε σταθερό στο 9,7%.
Η ανεργία φαίνεται να συμπιέζει τις καταναλωτικές δαπάνες, ακόμη και καθώς η ευρύτερη οικονομία ανακάμπτει από την ύφεση. Το ακαθάριστο εγχώριο προϊόν των ΗΠΑ αυξήθηκε κατά 5,9% το τέταρτο τρίμηνο, αλλά οι καταναλωτικές δαπάνες αυξήθηκαν μόνο κατά 1,7%.
Ο αναλυτής της Standard & Poor’s Marc Basham σημειώνει ότι τα αποτελέσματα για το 2008 και το 2009 αποτέλεσαν την πρώτη φορά που η κίνηση σε όλα τα εστιατόρια των ΗΠΑ μειώθηκε για δύο συναπτά έτη. Πέρυσι ήταν η πρώτη χρονιά που καταγράφηκε πτώση σε ετήσια βάση στις πωλήσεις της βιομηχανίας.
Μέχρι στιγμής το 2010, τα νούμερα για τις των εστιατορίων έχουν παραμείνει αρνητικά, λέει ο Hottovy της Morningstar. «Για να γίνουν [θετικά], θα πρέπει να βελτιωθούν τα ποσοστά ανεργίας», λέει.
source: capital.gr
Οι Έλληνες στέλνουν για παλιοσίδερα τα περισσότερα πλοία
Οι Έλληνες στέλνουν για παλιοσίδερα τα περισσότερα πλοία
Με φουλ ρυθμούς «τρέχουν» και το 2010 οι διαλύσεις πλοίων με την πλειονότητα των πλοιοκτητών να επιλέγουν το scrap για τα ηλικιωμένα πλοία των στόλων τους.
Σύμφωνα με το ναυλομεσιτικό οίκο N. Cotzias κατά τη διάρκεια των πρώτων δύο μηνών του 2010 ένας συνολικός αριθμός 152 πλοίων, χωρητικότητας 5,7 εκατ. τόνων πουλήθηκαν για scrap, όταν το αντίστοιχο διάστημα του 2009 που οι διαλύσεις συνολικά κατέγραψαν ρεκόρ δεκαετίας, είχαν οδηγηθεί για παλιοσίδερα 181 πλοία χωρητικότητας 5,88 εκατ. τόνων.
Ένα από τα πρόσφατα deals στο scrap αποτελεί και η διάλυση ενός φορτηγού πλοίου ξηρού φορτίου που ανήκε στους αδερφούς Πολέμη.
Το ηλικίας 32 ετών φορτηγό “Milos” της Polembros κατέληξε στα διαλυτήρια του Μπαγκλαντές έναντι 4,6 εκατ. δολαρίων.
Τον περασμένο μήνα, η Dynacom του Γιώργου Προκοπίου έστειλε για παλιοσίδερα το “ Star II”, ένα φορτηγό πλοίο που ναυπηγήθηκε το 1976, έναντι 2 εκατ. δολαρίων περίπου.
Από τα 152 πλοία που μέχρι στιγμής έχουν πάει για παλιοσίδερα, τα 37 είναι φορτηγά bulk carriers, τα 48 είναι δεξαμενόπλοια, τα 39 είναι πλοία μεταφοράς εμπορευματοκιβωτίων, 1 ψυγείο(reefer) και τα υπόλοιπα 27 είναι επιβατηγά και οχηματαγωγά πλοία.
Περισσότερο δραστήριοι εμφανίζονται και φέτος οι Έλληνες εφοπλιστές, έχοντας στο διάστημα των δύο πρώτων μηνών του έτους στείλει για scrap 24 πλοία. Στη δεύτερη θέση βρίσκονται οι Νορβηγοί με 12 πλοία και ακολουθούν στη τρίτη θέση οι Κινέζοι με 10 πλοία.
Πάντως, όλοι όσοι εμπλέκονται στη ναυτιλία θεωρούν τη φετινή πορεία των διαλύσεων, την κρισιμότερη των τελευταίων ετών, διότι ο όγκος του παλαιού τονάζ που θα αποσυρθεί από την αγορά θα κρίνει σε μεγάλο βαθμό την μετέπειτα πορεία της παγκόσμιας ζήτησης και των ναύλων. Η αγορά όπως μας αναφέρουν αναλυτές, βρίσκεται σε ένα κρίσιμο σημείο και κανείς δεν μπορεί να προδιαγράψει την εξέλιξη της αγοράς. Το μόνο βέβαιο που υπάρχει είναι ότι το 2010 -παρά τις όποιες ακυρώσεις παραγγελιών- πρόκειται να πέσει στο νερό ένας σημαντικός αριθμός πλοίων που θα εκτοξεύσει την διαθέσιμη χωρητικότητα και οι διαλύσεις φαντάζουν ως το πιο αποτελεσματικό «αντίδοτο» στην υπερπροσφορά τονάζ που τείνει να δημιουργηθεί.
source: capital.gr
FSA tells banks to prepare for double-dip recession
FSA tells banks to prepare for double-dip recession
Banks are being forced to prepare for a severe double-dip recession, including a jump in the unemployment rate to 13.3%, the City regulator said yesterday.
The regulatory ‘stress tests’ being imposed on the banks include a worst-case scenario that the UK economy contracts by a further 2.3%, the Financial Services Authority said in its annual ‘Financial Risk Outlook’ report.
In such a situation bad loans would inevitably increase, putting further pressure on banks' capital positions. The FSA is insisting that in such a scenario banks would still be able to keep their ‘tier one capital ratio’ - a vital measure of financial strength - at a minimum of 4%.
The FSA insisted the new stress tests would not require banks to hold significant amounts of extra capital, and that this was only a worst-case scenario, rather than a likelihood. However, the scenario implied in the latest round of tests are significantly worse than last year's equivalent tests, when the FSA asked banks to prepare for the possibility of a 6.9% peak-to-trough fall in GDP and a rise in unemployment to 12.5%.
In a seperate move, meanwhile, City minister Lord Myners is proposing that banks be forced to declare how many of their employees earn in excess of £500,000.
Such disclosure requirements would be much tougher than those suggested by Sir David Walker in his report on bank governance late last year. In that report, dismissed as too lenient by many critics, Walker suggested that banks only be forced to pubicly register employees earning more than £1 million, and even then their anonymity would be maintained.
Some estimates suggest that lowering the disclosure threshold to £500,000 would catch up to 25,000 City workers. The British Bankers' Assocation reacted angrily to the news, arguing that banker-bashing had become a 'popular political sport'.
source: citywire.co.uk
Πτώση της ανεργίας σε 9 πολιτείες των ΗΠΑ
Πτώση της ανεργίας σε 9 πολιτείες των ΗΠΑ
Σε 9 πολιτείες των ΗΠΑ μειώθηκε η ανεργία των Ιανουάριο ενώ σε 30 αυξήθηκε, σύμφωνα με τα στοιχεία που ανακοίνωσε το υπουργείο εργασίας.
Αναλυτικά, η μεγαλύτερη μείωση της ανεργίας- στο 14,3% από 14,5 το Δεκέμβριο- σημειώθηκε στο Μίτσιγκαν. Ωστόσο η πολιτεία του Μιτσιγκαν παραμένει πρώτη σε ανεργία στις ΗΠΑ.
Στις πολιτείες της Νέας Υόρκης και του New Jersey η μείωση της ανεργίας ήταν οριακή.
source: euro2day.gr
Firing the $70 billion man
Firing the $70 billion man
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- On November 19, 2009 Jeffrey Gundlach was named a finalist for Morningstar's award for bond fund manager of the decade. For Gundlach, the nomination recognized 10 years of stellar results, exceeding even the returns of the legendary king of bonds, Bill Gross.
Two weeks later Gundlach was confronted, fired, and then pursued on foot out of a Los Angeles skyscraper by two lawyers working for TCW, the money management firm with $110 billion in assets where Gundlach had worked for 24 years.
Not only did TCW oust Gundlach, but the firm also announced that it was acquiring an entire company -- crosstown rival Metropolitan West Asset Management -- to replace him. That in turn set off a wave of defections from TCW, as 45 of the 60 staffers who had worked for Gundlach streamed out the door to join him at a new firm that he had opened within days of leaving.
Then things really turned nasty. TCW filed an incendiary lawsuit in January accusing Gundlach of conspiring with confederates at TCW to steal proprietary information as part of a long-running plot to form their own competing firm. The suit added a salacious twist of the knife, perfectly calibrated for maximum media interest -- Gundlach had allegedly stashed a trove of illicit material in his office: 70 pornographic magazines and videos, 12 "sexual devices," and several bags of marijuana.
Gundlach has countered with his own lawsuit. He charges TCW and its owner, the French bank Société Générale, with pushing him out so that they can get their hands on his lucrative fees. In addition to his mutual funds, Gundlach had managed what were effectively two hedge funds for TCW, each of which commanded the amped-up fees typical of those vehicles. Gundlach calculates that he would have personally reaped $600 million to $1.2 billion over the next few years.
8 star managers who flew the coop
What in the name of Peter Lynch is going on here? Sure, we've come to expect shenanigans from Wall Street. But even if the mutual fund world hasn't been exactly pristine (remember the market-timing scandals a few years ago?), more often than not its managers and executives have been well-behaved schoolboys compared with the leather-clad (in spirit, anyway) rock stars among the investment bankers and hedge funders.
But unlike most mutual fund companies, TCW has always aspired to a Wall Street culture. In particular, it cultivated a star system. The company grew by importing ambitious money managers and granting them autonomy. They could invest as they liked; TCW would handle sales and marketing. The two sides would then split the fees, with each manager cutting an individual deal. The result could be huge rewards for managers -- Gundlach made $134 million over the past five years -- but some came to view themselves essentially as sole proprietors.
TCW seemed content with the arrangement and did little to tie its managers' fates to the company as a whole. Few of them, for example, received significant stakes in TCW. That bred frustration in multiple generations of standout performers, who viewed corporate executives (some of whom did receive ownership shares) as getting rich off their toil.
So it went for Gundlach, a bona fide investing star who, by the end, oversaw about 70% of TCW's assets, some $70 billion, putting him in charge of one of the biggest pots of money in the country. Gundlach didn't just generate steady returns; he avoided the blowup of the century. A specialist in mortgage-backed securities, he publicly warned in 2007 that "the subprime mortgage market is a total, unmitigated disaster, and it's going to get worse." He invested accordingly, not only delivering positive returns in the blighted year of 2008 but also earning himself a growing role as a media sage. His ego grew along with it.
There are few people like Jeffrey Gundlach in the mutual fund world -- or in any world. A former rock-and-roll drummer, Gundlach, 50, is a math whiz (but not a quant). He views everything in binary terms: Either you perform to his standards or you don't, and he won't hesitate to let you know which category you fall into. Nor is he shy in articulating his view of himself. "I was by far the biggest revenue generator at TCW, by far the biggest performer," he says. "I created $4 billion in value for clients in '09. If telling you that is self-promotion, so be it. It's just a fact."
With Gundlach, it's hard to tell which is largest: his brain, his self-regard -- or his resentment of TCW. He claims that his recent firing was actually the third time the company tried to get rid of him. "All three of them were an attempt to just steal the economics," Gundlach contends. "And this time they did it. Except they didn't steal the economics. They blew it up. They blew it up. They tried to steal the economics, but they didn't understand. They never understood."
TCW customers, meanwhile, have been watching the blood feud in disbelief. Investors have fled, with assets shrinking $25 billion since Gundlach was fired. For those who have remained, it seems that their patience is limited. "I'm aware of the investment prowess of both [Gundlach and the new TCW team]," says Mansco Perry III, CIO of the Maryland State Retirement and Pension System, which has $50 million invested in TCW. "But right now I don't believe they're acting in the best interest of their clients."
source: cnn.com
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- On November 19, 2009 Jeffrey Gundlach was named a finalist for Morningstar's award for bond fund manager of the decade. For Gundlach, the nomination recognized 10 years of stellar results, exceeding even the returns of the legendary king of bonds, Bill Gross.
Two weeks later Gundlach was confronted, fired, and then pursued on foot out of a Los Angeles skyscraper by two lawyers working for TCW, the money management firm with $110 billion in assets where Gundlach had worked for 24 years.
Not only did TCW oust Gundlach, but the firm also announced that it was acquiring an entire company -- crosstown rival Metropolitan West Asset Management -- to replace him. That in turn set off a wave of defections from TCW, as 45 of the 60 staffers who had worked for Gundlach streamed out the door to join him at a new firm that he had opened within days of leaving.
Then things really turned nasty. TCW filed an incendiary lawsuit in January accusing Gundlach of conspiring with confederates at TCW to steal proprietary information as part of a long-running plot to form their own competing firm. The suit added a salacious twist of the knife, perfectly calibrated for maximum media interest -- Gundlach had allegedly stashed a trove of illicit material in his office: 70 pornographic magazines and videos, 12 "sexual devices," and several bags of marijuana.
Gundlach has countered with his own lawsuit. He charges TCW and its owner, the French bank Société Générale, with pushing him out so that they can get their hands on his lucrative fees. In addition to his mutual funds, Gundlach had managed what were effectively two hedge funds for TCW, each of which commanded the amped-up fees typical of those vehicles. Gundlach calculates that he would have personally reaped $600 million to $1.2 billion over the next few years.
8 star managers who flew the coop
What in the name of Peter Lynch is going on here? Sure, we've come to expect shenanigans from Wall Street. But even if the mutual fund world hasn't been exactly pristine (remember the market-timing scandals a few years ago?), more often than not its managers and executives have been well-behaved schoolboys compared with the leather-clad (in spirit, anyway) rock stars among the investment bankers and hedge funders.
But unlike most mutual fund companies, TCW has always aspired to a Wall Street culture. In particular, it cultivated a star system. The company grew by importing ambitious money managers and granting them autonomy. They could invest as they liked; TCW would handle sales and marketing. The two sides would then split the fees, with each manager cutting an individual deal. The result could be huge rewards for managers -- Gundlach made $134 million over the past five years -- but some came to view themselves essentially as sole proprietors.
TCW seemed content with the arrangement and did little to tie its managers' fates to the company as a whole. Few of them, for example, received significant stakes in TCW. That bred frustration in multiple generations of standout performers, who viewed corporate executives (some of whom did receive ownership shares) as getting rich off their toil.
So it went for Gundlach, a bona fide investing star who, by the end, oversaw about 70% of TCW's assets, some $70 billion, putting him in charge of one of the biggest pots of money in the country. Gundlach didn't just generate steady returns; he avoided the blowup of the century. A specialist in mortgage-backed securities, he publicly warned in 2007 that "the subprime mortgage market is a total, unmitigated disaster, and it's going to get worse." He invested accordingly, not only delivering positive returns in the blighted year of 2008 but also earning himself a growing role as a media sage. His ego grew along with it.
There are few people like Jeffrey Gundlach in the mutual fund world -- or in any world. A former rock-and-roll drummer, Gundlach, 50, is a math whiz (but not a quant). He views everything in binary terms: Either you perform to his standards or you don't, and he won't hesitate to let you know which category you fall into. Nor is he shy in articulating his view of himself. "I was by far the biggest revenue generator at TCW, by far the biggest performer," he says. "I created $4 billion in value for clients in '09. If telling you that is self-promotion, so be it. It's just a fact."
With Gundlach, it's hard to tell which is largest: his brain, his self-regard -- or his resentment of TCW. He claims that his recent firing was actually the third time the company tried to get rid of him. "All three of them were an attempt to just steal the economics," Gundlach contends. "And this time they did it. Except they didn't steal the economics. They blew it up. They blew it up. They tried to steal the economics, but they didn't understand. They never understood."
TCW customers, meanwhile, have been watching the blood feud in disbelief. Investors have fled, with assets shrinking $25 billion since Gundlach was fired. For those who have remained, it seems that their patience is limited. "I'm aware of the investment prowess of both [Gundlach and the new TCW team]," says Mansco Perry III, CIO of the Maryland State Retirement and Pension System, which has $50 million invested in TCW. "But right now I don't believe they're acting in the best interest of their clients."
source: cnn.com
China’s Inflation Quickens as Industrial Production Climbs
China’s Inflation Quickens as Industrial Production Climbs
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s inflation reached a 16- month high, industrial output climbed and new loans exceeded forecasts, adding to the case for the government to pare back stimulus measures.
Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent in February from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today, compared with the 2.5 percent median estimate of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Seasonal factors stemming from a weeklong holiday may have boosted prices. Production rose 20.7 percent in the first two months of 2010, the most in more than five years.
Premier Wen Jiabao aims to hold full-year inflation around 3 percent after banks flooded the financial system with money to drive a rebound from the global recession. Gross domestic product grew 10.7 percent last quarter and central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said March 6 that anti-crisis policies, including the yuan’s peg to the dollar, must end “sooner or later.”
“Inflation may top the 3 percent policy target by April, which is bound to trigger further monetary tightening,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at SJS Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong. He sees benchmark interest rates increasing as early as this month.
Stocks across the region dropped, a reflection of the sensitivity of economic expansions from Australia to South Korea to any possible tightening and slowdown in China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
Lending Growth
The Shanghai Composite Index swung between gains and losses, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 0.1 percent and the Kospi index fell 0.2 percent as of 2:47 p.m. in Seoul.
Twelve-month non-deliverable yuan forwards were at 6.6389 per dollar as of 1:53 p.m. in Hong Kong, after touching 6.6305, the strongest since Feb. 1. That reflects bets the currency will rise about 2.7 percent from the spot rate of 6.8261.
Banks extended 700 billion yuan ($103 billion) of new loans in February, central bank data showed today. That compared with 1.39 trillion yuan in the previous month and 1.07 trillion yuan a year earlier. The median estimate was 600 billion yuan.
M2, a measure of money supply, rose 25.5 percent, compared with a 26 percent gain in January. The government targets 17 percent M2 growth for this year. Retail sales rose 17.9 percent in the first two months from a year earlier, and urban fixed- asset investment gained 26.6 percent. Retail sales grew 22.1 percent in February, the bureau said.
Economists often look at January and February numbers together to eliminate distortions caused by a one-week Lunar New Year holiday. China’s 2010 data is also boosted by comparisons with year-ago levels depressed by the financial crisis.
Overheating Signs
Statistics bureau spokesman Sheng Laiyun told reporters that a low base last year boosted the output number and the government doesn’t see signs of economic overheating. Inflation may slow in March on improved weather after snow and storms pushed up food costs at the start of the year, he said. Food prices rose 6.2 percent in February from a year earlier.
His comments contrasted with some economists’ concern after trade data yesterday showed exports rebounding faster than economists forecast and a property-market report said prices climbed in February by the most in almost two years.
“More decisive policy tightening measures than those implemented so far are needed to prevent the economy from overheating,” said Song Yu and Helen Qiao, Hong Kong-based economists with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The government may increase interest rates and bank reserve requirements and control investment approvals and funding, they said.
Price Pressures
Barclays Capital increased today its projection for China’s inflation rate this year to 3.5 percent from a previous estimate of 3 percent.
Commodity costs, reforms of China’s energy and resource pricing, and the effects of last year’s expansion of credit may add inflation pressures this year, China’s top planning agency told lawmakers last week. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. and spirits manufacturer Kweichow Moutai Co. are among companies to have pushed up prices.
Producer-price inflation climbed to 5.4 percent in February from 4.3 percent in January, the statistics bureau said today.
The central bank hasn’t raised benchmark interest rates since December 2007, before the financial crisis deepened. The one-year lending rate is at 5.31 percent and deposit rate is at 2.25 percent. China has also effectively pegged the yuan at about 6.83 per dollar since July 2008 to help exporters.
The central bank has twice raised lenders’ reserve requirements this year. Deputy Governor Su Ning said this week that those moves were to prevent monetary conditions becoming “excessively loose” as the government continues to implement what it describes as a “moderately loose” stance.
Policy makers are targeting lending of 7.5 trillion yuan, 22 percent less than last year’s actual figure, and pledging to crack down on property speculation. The government has tightened second-home mortgages and banks have reduced discounts on home- loan rates.
source: bloomberg.com
BP Pays $7 Billion for Devon Assets in Brazil, Gulf of Mexico
BP Pays $7 Billion for Devon Assets in Brazil, Gulf of Mexico
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc, Europe’s largest oil and gas company, will pay Devon Energy Corp. $7 billion in cash for assets in Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico and Azerbaijan.
As part of the deal, Devon will buy a 50 percent interest in BP’s Kirby oil sands project in Canada, BP said in a press release in London today. The companies will form a 50-50 joint venture there, with Devon paying $500 million for its stake and committing to pay $150 million of BP’s capital costs.
“This strategic opportunity fits well with BP’s operating strengths and key interests around the world,” said BP Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward. “As well as giving us a broad portfolio of assets in the exciting Brazilian deepwater, it will strengthen our position in the Gulf of Mexico, enhance our interests in Azerbaijan and enable us to progress the development of Canadian assets.”
Hayward said last week that BP was interested in gaining access to assets off the coast of Brazil as he tries to secure additional reserves. BP outpaced Exxon Mobil Corp. in oil production for the first time last year.
source: bloomberg
Συνωστισμός στην έξοδο του Χ.Α.
Συνωστισμός στην έξοδο του Χ.Α.
Μπενρουμπή, Λυμπέρης, ΑΒ Βασιλόπουλος, Rainbow, Singular Logic και έπεται συνέχεια. Η λίστα των εταιρειών που βρίσκονται σε τροχιά εξόδου από το Χρηματιστήριο Αθηνών διευρύνεται διαρκώς.
Πρόκειται για ένα φαινόμενο που πέρυσι είχε λάβει διεθνώς μεγάλες διαστάσεις λόγω της υποχώρησης αγορών και μετοχών σε χαμηλές ιστορικά αποτιμήσεις. Ωστόσο, στην Ελλάδα συνεχίζεται, αφού το ελληνικό χρηματιστήριο που παραμένει εκτός κλίματος λόγω των προβλημάτων της εγχώριας οικονομίας, επιτρέπει ακόμη τέτοιες κινήσεις.
Ως αποτέλεσμα, πληθαίνουν οι βασικοί μέτοχοι που, είτε διότι εκτιμούν πως η παραμονή στην αγορά δεν εξυπηρετεί τον επιχειρηματικό τους σχεδιασμό, είτε διότι επιθυμούν να εκμεταλλευτούν τη συγκυρία των χαμηλών αποτιμήσεων, αποφασίζουν να καταθέσουν δημόσια πρόταση για την απόκτηση –και μάλιστα σε ιδιαίτερα χαμηλές τιμές σε σχέση με προηγούμενα έτη– του συνόλου των μετοχών των εταιρειών τους και εν συνεχεία τη διαγραφή τους από το Χ.Α.
Με τις Μπενρουμπή και Λυμπέρης να αποτελούν τις πιο πρόσφατες περιπτώσεις εταιρειών που αποφάσισαν να θέσουν εαυτόν εκτός Χ.Α., στο προσκήνιο επανήλθε –ελέω κρίσης– η συζήτηση της επιβάρυνσης των λειτουργικών εξόδων ορισμένων εταιρειών λόγω της παραμονής τους στο ταμπλό. Ωστόσο, ο πρόεδρος του Χρηματιστηρίου Σπύρος Καπράλος απορρίπτει αυτή την επιχειρηματολογία.
“Οι χρεώσεις της ΕΧΑΕ είναι σχετικά χαμηλές και σίγουρα στο πλαίσιο αυτών που επιβάλλουν τα περισσότερα χρηματιστήρια. Ειδικά στις εταιρείες μικρής και μεσαίας κεφαλαιοποίησης είναι πολύ μικρές. Κατά συνέπεια, δεν εξετάζουμε μείωση των τιμολογίων προς τις εισγηγμένες. Εξάλλου, δεν θα πρέπει να ξεχνάμε ότι το μεγαλύτερο κόστος για τις εισηγμένες είναι αυτό που προκύπτει από τους κανόνες εταιρικής διακυβέρνησης καθώς και οι υποχρεώσεις που έχουν για τη δημοσίευση στον τύπο των οικονομικών καταστάσεων και άλλων ανακοινώσεων”, αναφέρει στο Capital.gr.
Σύμφωνα με στοιχεία της ΕΧΑΕ, το 2009 τα έσοδα από τις συνδρομές των εισηγμένων εταιρειών ανήλθαν στα 3,7 εκατ. ευρώ έναντι 5,8 εκατ. ευρώ το 2008, καταγράφοντας μείωση κατά 37%. Συνολικά, όμως, το 2009 τα έσοδα από τις εταιρείες του Χρηματιστηρίου ήταν αυξημένα κατά 15% (έφθασαν τα 11,5 εκατ. ευρώ από 10,1 εκατ. ευρώ το 2008) λόγω του υπερδιπλασιασμού των εσόδων από αυξήσεις κεφαλαίου, οι οποίες γέμισαν τα ταμεία της εταιρείας με σχεδόν 7 εκατ. ευρώ.
Με δεδομένο όμως ότι μεγάλες αυξήσεις κεφαλαίου δεν φαίνονται στο ορίζοντα, ούτε μεγάλες νέες εισαγωγές – εκτός εάν τελεσφορήσει το σχέδιο για εισαγωγή εταιρειών της ποντοπόρου ναυτιλίας που βρίσκεται στα σκαριά– η φετινή χρονιά προοιωνίζεται δύσκολη, ιδιαίτερα με την αποχώρηση μεγάλων ομίλων, όπως η Emporiki Bank και η ΑΒ Βασιλόπουλος.
Η προοπτική, πάντως, αυτή δεν ανησυχεί τους επικεφαλής της αγοράς. Όπως εξηγούν, τα όποια διαφυγόντα έσοδα πολύ εύκολα θα αναπληρωθούν όταν η βελτίωση του κλίματος θα φέρει νέες εισαγωγές και αυξήσεις κεφαλαίου. «Αυτό που θα πρέπει να γίνει αντιληπτό είναι ότι η αποχώρηση εταιρειών απ’ το χρηματιστήριο είναι ένα διεθνές φαινόμενο, επιτείνεται σε περιόδους που οι αγορές είναι φανερά υποτιμημένες, και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν δείχνει κάποια ‘παθογένεια’ της ελληνικής αγοράς», σημειώνει ο κ. Καπράλος.
Τους τελευταίους μήνες οι μόνες εταιρείες που έχουν περάσει το κατώφλι του Χ.Α. αφορούν την Εναλλακτική Αγορά. Αύριο Παρασκευή είναι η πρώτη ημέρα διαπραγμάτευσης των μετοχών της εταιρείας υπηρεσιών τηλεϊατρικής Vidavo, ενώ αναμένεται να ακολουθήσει η εμπορική εταιρεία Diversa.
source: capital.gr
Απεργιακό μπλακ άουτ
Απεργιακό μπλακ άουτ
Με κεντρικό σύνθημα να μην πληρώσουν οι εργαζόμενοι την κρίση, ΓΣΕΕ και ΑΔΕΔΥ πραγματοποιούν σήμερα 24ωρη πανελλαδική – πανεργατική απεργία, που αποτελεί το πρώτο και σημαντικό, κρίσιμο τεστ για το εάν θα υπάρξουν πιθανές σκληρές αναμετρήσεις μεταξύ κυβέρνησης – εργαζόμενων στο άμεσο μέλλον.
Τόσο οι ΓΣΕΕ και ΑΔΕΔΥ όσο και το Πανεργατικό Αγωνιστικό Μέτωπο (ΠΑΜΕ) πραγματοποιούν συγκεντρώσεις στο κέντρο της Αθήνας αλλά και των άλλων μεγάλων πόλεων, με αποτέλεσμα να αναμένεται κυκλοφοριακό κομφούζιο στους κεντρικούς οδικούς άξονες, που θα επιταθεί εξαιτίας και της απεργίας των εργαζόμενων στα Μέσα Μαζικής Μεταφοράς. Με εξαίρεση τους εργαζόμενους στον ηλεκτρικό σηδηρόδρομο (ΗΣΑΠ), που αποφάσισαν να αναστείλουν την απεργία τους κατά τις ώρες από τις 10 το πρωί μέχρι και τις 4 το απόγευμα, για να διευκολυνθεί η προσέλευση των εργαζομένων στην πορεία, απεργούν όλοι οι εργαζόμενοι στα ΜΜΜ.
Έτσι, ακινητοποιημένα θα παραμείνουν Μετρό, Λεωφορεία, Τραμ, Τρόλεϋ και Προαστιακός. Πορεία αναμένεται να πραγματοποιήσουν στις 11.30 το πρωί ακόμη και οι συνδικαλιστές της Ελληνικής Αστυνομίας, της Πυροσβεστικής και του Λιμενικού Σώματος, έξω από την παλιά Βουλή, ενώ ΓΣΕΕ και ΑΔΕΔΥ θα πραγματοποιήσουν συγκέντρωση στο Πεδίον του Άρεως, στις 11.00 το πρωί. Την ίδια ώρα, στην Ομόνοια θα συγκεντρωθούν τα μέλη του ΠΑΜΕ. Στην απεργία συμμετέχουν οι ιδιωτικοί και δημόσιοι υπάλληλοι, οι οικοδόμοι, οι εργαζόμενοι στη βιομηχανία, οι εργαζόμενοι στα Ταμεία και τους δήμους, οι εκπαιδευτικοί, οι γιατροί και οι υγειονομικοί, οι μηχανικοί, οι εργαζόμενοι στις ΔΕΚΟ και τις συγκοινωνίες, οι ναυτεργάτες, οι τραπεζοϋπάλληλοι, οι δημοσιογράφοι και οι εργαζόμενοι στον Τύπο.
Κλειστές θα παραμείνουν οι δημόσιες υπηρεσίες, ασφαλιστικά ταμεία, υπουργεία, οι υπηρεσίες των δήμων της χώρας και τα σχολεία, ενώ τα νοσοκομεία και το ΕΚΑΒ θα λειτουργήσουν με προσωπικό ασφαλείας και θα δέχονται μόνο επείγοντα περιστατικά. Οι λεγόμενες κρατικού ενδιαφέροντος τράπεζες θα υπολειτουργούν. Λουκέτο μπαίνει και στο αεροδρόμιο, καθώς δεν θα πραγματοποιηθεί καμία προγραμματισμένη πτήση, τα πλοία θα μείνουν δεμένα στα λιμάνια ενώ και τα τρένα θα παραμείνουν ακινητοποιημένα. Ακόμη και η διώρυγα της Κορίνθου, θα παραμένει κλειστή για τα εμπορικά πλοία (επιτρέπεται η διέλευση μόνο σε πολεμικά πλοία). Μετά την επίθεση που δέχθηκε την περασμένη εβδομάδα ο πρόεδρος της ΓΣΕΕ Γιάννης Παναγόπουλος, κατά τη σημερινή απεργιακή κινητοποίηση θα επιδιωχθεί η διατήρηση της ενότητας του συνδικαλιστικού κινήματος, μέσα από την απομόνωση ξένων στοιχείων, που ανεξάρτητα από τις προθέσεις τους, με τις προβοκατόρικες πράξεις τους έχουν ως αποτέλεσμα την υπονόμευση των κινητοποιήσεων, των εργαζομένων.
Υπό το φόβο έντονων κοινωνικών εκρήξεων, η κυβέρνηση προσπαθεί τις τελευταίες ημέρες να «μαζέψει» με κάθε τρόπο, την... προοπτική επέκτασης των περικοπών σε επιδόματα και μισθούς από το δημόσιο και στον ιδιωτικό τομέα. Το αρμόδιο υπουργείο Εργασίας, δια στόματος και του υπουργού Ανδρέα Λοβέρδου που διαμήνυσε σε όλους τους τόνους, ότι θέμα περικοπής 13ου και 14ου μισθού στον ιδιωτικό τομέα δεν θέτει ούτε η κυβέρνηση, ούτε οι επιτηρητές, ούτε ο Επίτροπος Ολι Ρεν, όσο και του κ. Κουτρουμάνη που επεσήμανε ότι κάτι τέτοιο θα ήταν καταστροφικό για τα μειωμένα έσοδα των ταμείων, απέκλεισε κάθε τέτοιο ενδεχόμενο.
Ακόμη και ο ΣΕΒ αλλά και οι υπόλοιπες εργοδοτικές οργανώσεις ξεκαθάρισαν ότι δεν είναι στις προθέσεις τους να προχωρήσουν σε περικοπές των δώρων και επιδομάτων. Παρ’ όλα αυτά, ήδη, οι περικοπές στους μισθούς έχουν ξεκινήσει, κυρίως μέσα από τις δυνατότητες ευελιξιών που παρέχει το υπάρχον θεσμικό πλαίσιο για την ελληνική αγορά εργασίας. Έτσι, πληθαίνουν οι καταγγελίες για μονομερείς επιβλαβείς μετατροπές συμβάσεων, την ίδια στιγμή, που στο υπουργείο Εργασίας επιδιώκουν την ψήφιση του νομοσχεδίου για τα εργασιακά, σαφώς διαφοροποιημένο από τις αρχικές προθέσεις. Έτσι, η εργασία το Σάββατο θα αμείβεται επαυξημένη κατά 50% (από 100% που προβλεπόταν αρχικά), ενώ και για τα μπλοκάκια, η μετατροπή της σύμβασης θα μπορεί να επιδιώκεται μετά το πέρας 6 μηνών και όχι 3.
source: capital.gr
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