Sunday, March 2, 2008
Ο Ντμίτρι Μεντβέντεφ νέος πρόεδρος της Ρωσίας
Ο Ντμίτρι Μεντβέντεφ νέος πρόεδρος της Ρωσίας
Στην πρωθυπουργία με πρόεδρο τον Ντμίτρι Μεντβέντεφ μεταπηδά ο Βλαντιμίρ Πούτιν.
Μόσχα: Την οκταετή προεδρική θητεία του Βλαντιμίρ Πούτιν κλείνει ...τυπικά η εκλογή του Ντμίτρι Μεντβέντεφ με ποσοστό κοντά στο 65%και υψηλή συμμετοχή, σε μία εκλογική διαδικασία δίχως κανένα στοιχείο έκπληξης και με τις πάγιες διεθνείς και εσωτερικές αντιδράσεις για τις «δαγκάνες» του Κρεμλίνου...
Ο 52χρονος Ντμίτρι Μεντέντεφ, μέχρι πρότεινος πρώτος αντιπρόεδρος της ρωσικής κυβέρνησης και επικεφαλής του ενεργειακού κολοσσού της Gazprom, είναι ο νεότερος ηγέτης της μετατσαρικής Ρωσίας και εξελέγη με ποσοστό που προσεγγίζει το 65%, απορροφώντας τη δημοτικότητα του Βλαντιμίρ Πούτιν.
Η καταμέτρηση των ψήφων στο 16% των εκλογικών τμημάτων δίνει στον Ντμίτρι Μεντβέντεφ (Ενωμένη Ρωσία) ποσοστό 64,55%, στον Γκενάντι Ζιουγκάνοφ (Κομουνιστικό Κόμμα) 19,84%, στον Βλαντίμιρ Ζιρινόφσκι (LDRR) 12,74% και στον Αντρέι Μπογκντάνοφ (Δημοκρατικό Κόμμα) 1,5%.
Ο Γκενάντι Ζιουγκάνοφ δήλωσε ότι δεδομένων των συνθηκών είναι ικανοποιητική η δεύτερη θέση, κατήγγειλε όμως παρατυπίες σε πολλές περιφέρειες και προανήγγειλε νομική δράση.
Το ποσοστό προσέλευσης των Ρώσων στις κάλπες προσσεγίζει το 60%, ισχυρό ποσοστό το οποίο επεδίωξε με ...καρότο και μαστίγιο το Κρεμλίνο για να αποκρούσει την κριτική για παρατυπίες και άνιση προεκλογική εκστρατεία.
Απειλές για αντίποινα σε περίπτωση αποχής, αλλά και φθηνό φαγητό, λοταρίες με προσφορές αυτοκινήτων ή προσκλήσεων για νυχτερινά κέντρα είναι μερικές μόνο από τις τακτικές που χρησιμοποιήθηκαν για την προσέλκυση των ψηφοφόρων σε μία εκλογική αναμέτρηση που η έκβασή της ήταν ούτως ή άλλως προδιαγεγραμμένη.
Ψήφισαν Αμπχαζία και Υπερδνειστερία
Σε μια επίδειξη περαιτέρω κατοχύρωσης της de facto απόσχισής τους από τη Γεωργία και τη Μολδαβία αντιστοίχως, οι ηγέτες των μη αναγνωρισμένων διεθνώς αποσχισθεισών περιοχών της Αμπχαζίας και της Υπερδνειστερίας συμμετείχαν την Κυριακή στις εκλογές για την ανάδειξη προέδρου της Ρωσίας.
Ο «πρόεδρος» της Αμπχαζίας Σεργκέι Μπαγκάπς ψήφισε σε εκλογικό τμήμα που λειτούργησε στο νοσοκομείο των ρωσικών ειρηνευτικών δυνάμεων, οι οποίες σταθμεύουν στην περιοχή. Για τη διευκόλυνση των ψηφοφόρων οι αστικές συγκοινωνίες μετέφεραν δωρεάν τους επιβάτες στα τρία εκλογικά τμήματα που στήθηκαν συνολικά για τις ρωσικές εκλογές.
Υπολογίζεται ότι το 80% των κατοίκων της αποσχισθείσας γεωργιανής επαρχίας της Αμπχαζίας έχουν ρωσικά διαβατήρια και συμμετέχουν δραστήρια σε όλες τις τελευταίες εκλογικές αναμετρήσεις στη Ρωσία.
Ο Ίγκορ Σμιρνόφ, «πρόεδρος» της Υπερδνειστερίας, τόνισε μπροστά στην κάλπη ότι τα τελευταία οκτώ χρόνια η Ρωσία μεταμορφώθηκε και η Υπερδνειστερία στηρίζει τη συνέχεια στην πολιτική της, γι' αυτό και στην πρώτη του συνάντηση με τον νέο πρόεδρο θα του πει ότι «αντικειμενικά και από οικονομική και νομική άποψη, είναι καιρός να μας αναγνωρίσει».
Στην Υπερδνειστερία διαβιούν περίπου 110.000 Ρώσοι κάτοικοι, εκ των οποίων 85.000 έχουν δικαίωμα ψήφου. Στην περιοχή λειτουργούν συνολικά 23 εκλογικά τμήματα και μόλις άλλα δύο σε όλη την υπόλοιπη Μολδαβία.
Ο Βλαντιμίρ Πούτιν και η ρωσική διπλωματία έχουν επανειλημμένως προειδοποιήσει ότι η μονομερής ανεξαρτητοποίηση του Κοσόβου δημιουργεί προηγούμενο, που θα είναι δύσκολο να το αρνηθούν σε άλλες παρόμοιες περιπτώσεις στις λεγόμενες «παγωμένες συγκρούσεις» στην πρώην ΕΣΣΔ.
Ο Ντμίτρι Μεντβέντεφ
Ο Μεντβέντεφ γεννήθηκε στις 14 Σεπτεμβρίου 1965 στην Αγία Πετρούπολη, γενέτειρα του Πούτιν, σε μια οικογένεια πανεπιστημιακών. Αποφοίτησε το 1987 από τη Νομική Σχολή του Πανεπιστημίου της Αγίας Πετρούπολης, το πανεπιστήμιο όπου σπούδασε και ο ίδιος ο Βλ.Πούτιν.
Στην περίοδο 1991-96 συνδύασε τη δουλειά του ως λέκτορα στη Νομική Σχολή με μία θέση εμπειρογνώμονα στην επιτροπή εξωτερικών σχέσεων της δημαρχίας της Αγίας Πετρούπολης, επικεφαλής της οποίας ήταν τότε ο νυν Ρώσος πρόεδρος.
Το 1999 μετακινήθηκε στη Μόσχα ως προσωπάρχης της κυβέρνησης και ηγήθηκε της πρώτης προεκλογικής εκστρατείας του Βλαντιμίρ Πούτιν το 2000.
Μετά την εκλογή του Πούτιν, έγινε αναπληρωτής προσωπάρχης του Κρεμλίνου, ενώ κατείχε παράλληλα ανώτερες θέσεις σε κρατικά ελεγχόμενες εταρείες, περιλαμβανομένης της προεδρίας του διοικητικού συμβουλίου της Gazprom, της γιγάντιας εταιρείας φυσικού αερίου.
Δύο χρόνια αφού έγινε προσωπάρχης του Κρεμλίνου, το 2003, ο Μεντβέντεφ διορίστηκε πρώτος αντιπρόεδρος της κυβέρνησης, αρμόδιος για τα κοινωνικά προγράμματα του προέδρου (φαρμακευτική περίθαλψη, στεγαστικά προγράμματα, γεωργία, κατασκευές, πολιτισμός).
Ο Μεντβέντεφ θεωρείται ότι ανήκει στην πιο φιλελεύθερη πτέρυγα του περιβάλλοντος του Πούτιν. Η κρατική τηλεόραση τον δείχνει να μιλάει με φοιτητές, διανοουμένους και φυσιογνωμίες του πολιτισμού, μολονότι ο Μεντβέντεφ αποφεύγει επιμελώς να εκφράσει τις δικές του πολιτικές απόψεις πέραν των κοινωνικών προγραμμάτων για τα οποία είναι αρμόδιος.
PHILELEFTHEROS.COM
Ross to put up to $1 bln into rival to Ambac, MBIA
Ross to put up to $1 bln into rival to Ambac, MBIA
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire Wilbur Ross has agreed to invest up to $1 billion in Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE:AGO - News), bypassing big bond insurers such as Ambac Financial Group Inc (NYSE:ABK - News) in favor of a rival that has largely avoided the credit problems plaguing the industry.
Ross agreed to buy $250 million of common shares of Assured Guaranty and committed to purchase up to $750 million in additional stock at the company's option. Shares of Assured Guaranty, the fifth-largest bond insurer, rose 12.6 percent to close at $25.65 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Assured Guaranty has stayed away from insuring repackaged subprime mortgages and other risky debt since late 2003, while competitors, including Ambac Financial Group Inc (NYSE:ABK - News) guaranteed the securities and are expected to face billions of dollars of payouts in coming years.
Those expected payouts -- which increased by some $650 million in January -- could cost Ambac its top debt ratings. Banks, regulators and others are working to raise new capital for Ambac, but those discussions are moving more slowly than hoped, people familiar with the matter said.
Ambac said that to preserve capital, it is cutting its dividend to a penny a share, and refraining from insuring repackaged debt for six months.
Because of questions about its ratings, Ambac said on Friday that it is at a "significant" disadvantage to competitors like Assured Guaranty.
Ross told Reuters he chose Assured Guaranty because his capital would be used for winning new business instead of making up for losses.
"The idea of this capital is to reposition the company, not to simply patch a hole," Ross said in a telephone interview, adding that he was still in conversations with other bond insurers.
That strategy differs from Ross' usual preference to buy companies that are failing or close to it. Ross made his billions by buying distressed companies in the steel, coal and textile industries and nursing them back to health.
Ross said he may use Assured Guaranty as a platform for buying rival businesses, or reinsuring other insurers' business.
Hamilton, Bermuda-based Assured Guaranty already has reinsured competitors' businesses. The company agreed in December to reinsure $29 billion of Ambac's insurance and issued about $300 million of shares to help fund the deal.
Assured Guaranty had insured about $200 billion of outstanding debt as of the end of 2007, making it less than a third of the size of MBIA Inc (NYSE:MBI - News), the largest bond insurer.
But its stock has fared better than those of its larger rivals. Assured Guaranty has fallen about 5 percent since the start of 2007, compared with a more than 85 percent plunge for Ambac and a more than 80 percent decline for MBIA.
Merrill Lynch acted as adviser to Assured Guaranty on the deal with Ross.
JOY AND PAIN FOR AMBAC
Investors had hoped that Ross' WL Ross & Co LLC would help rescue Ambac, after reports last month he was eyeing an investment in the second-largest bond insurer.
Ambac is talking to banks about raising capital, but even without new funds, Ambac's main unit has the minimum amount of capital required to maintain its top credit ratings, Moody's Investors Service said on Friday.
Adding another $2 billion of new capital would bring Ambac Assurance to Moody's "target" level and give Ambac more than 3 times the capital required to cover expected losses whose present value is around $4.2 billion, the rating agency said.
Moody's said it may still cut Ambac's ratings.
"We would expect that some of the issues we are focusing on will become more clear shortly and we would expect to conclude our analysis soon thereafter," Moody's analyst Jack Dorer said in an interview with Reuters.
Ambac said in an annual report filed with regulators on Friday it is weighing plans to maintain top ratings at Ambac Assurance, but without those ratings, the insurer believes it can still operate with a "double-A" rating. Ambac would hope to accumulate capital and eventually regain its top ratings then.
Standard & Poor's and Moody's are thinking about cutting Ambac Assurance. Fitch stripped Ambac Assurance of its top ratings last month.
One way Ambac is raising capital is by cutting its expected quarterly dividend to a penny a share, from 7 cents a share previously and 21 cents earlier this year. The company is also not going to insure any new structured finance securities for six months, which should free up about $600 million in capital.
That is a little bit less than the roughly $650 million estimated write-down on Ambac's credit derivatives in January, but more than the $400 million that S&P said earlier this week Ambac needed to raise.
Ambac shares closed down 5.6 percent at $11.14 on the New York Stock Exchange.
(Additional reporting by Christian Plumb, Dan Burns, Karen Brettell, and Jonathan Keehner; Editing by Gerald E. McCormick, Andre Grenon, Richard Chang)
REUTERS
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire Wilbur Ross has agreed to invest up to $1 billion in Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE:AGO - News), bypassing big bond insurers such as Ambac Financial Group Inc (NYSE:ABK - News) in favor of a rival that has largely avoided the credit problems plaguing the industry.
Ross agreed to buy $250 million of common shares of Assured Guaranty and committed to purchase up to $750 million in additional stock at the company's option. Shares of Assured Guaranty, the fifth-largest bond insurer, rose 12.6 percent to close at $25.65 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Assured Guaranty has stayed away from insuring repackaged subprime mortgages and other risky debt since late 2003, while competitors, including Ambac Financial Group Inc (NYSE:ABK - News) guaranteed the securities and are expected to face billions of dollars of payouts in coming years.
Those expected payouts -- which increased by some $650 million in January -- could cost Ambac its top debt ratings. Banks, regulators and others are working to raise new capital for Ambac, but those discussions are moving more slowly than hoped, people familiar with the matter said.
Ambac said that to preserve capital, it is cutting its dividend to a penny a share, and refraining from insuring repackaged debt for six months.
Because of questions about its ratings, Ambac said on Friday that it is at a "significant" disadvantage to competitors like Assured Guaranty.
Ross told Reuters he chose Assured Guaranty because his capital would be used for winning new business instead of making up for losses.
"The idea of this capital is to reposition the company, not to simply patch a hole," Ross said in a telephone interview, adding that he was still in conversations with other bond insurers.
That strategy differs from Ross' usual preference to buy companies that are failing or close to it. Ross made his billions by buying distressed companies in the steel, coal and textile industries and nursing them back to health.
Ross said he may use Assured Guaranty as a platform for buying rival businesses, or reinsuring other insurers' business.
Hamilton, Bermuda-based Assured Guaranty already has reinsured competitors' businesses. The company agreed in December to reinsure $29 billion of Ambac's insurance and issued about $300 million of shares to help fund the deal.
Assured Guaranty had insured about $200 billion of outstanding debt as of the end of 2007, making it less than a third of the size of MBIA Inc (NYSE:MBI - News), the largest bond insurer.
But its stock has fared better than those of its larger rivals. Assured Guaranty has fallen about 5 percent since the start of 2007, compared with a more than 85 percent plunge for Ambac and a more than 80 percent decline for MBIA.
Merrill Lynch acted as adviser to Assured Guaranty on the deal with Ross.
JOY AND PAIN FOR AMBAC
Investors had hoped that Ross' WL Ross & Co LLC would help rescue Ambac, after reports last month he was eyeing an investment in the second-largest bond insurer.
Ambac is talking to banks about raising capital, but even without new funds, Ambac's main unit has the minimum amount of capital required to maintain its top credit ratings, Moody's Investors Service said on Friday.
Adding another $2 billion of new capital would bring Ambac Assurance to Moody's "target" level and give Ambac more than 3 times the capital required to cover expected losses whose present value is around $4.2 billion, the rating agency said.
Moody's said it may still cut Ambac's ratings.
"We would expect that some of the issues we are focusing on will become more clear shortly and we would expect to conclude our analysis soon thereafter," Moody's analyst Jack Dorer said in an interview with Reuters.
Ambac said in an annual report filed with regulators on Friday it is weighing plans to maintain top ratings at Ambac Assurance, but without those ratings, the insurer believes it can still operate with a "double-A" rating. Ambac would hope to accumulate capital and eventually regain its top ratings then.
Standard & Poor's and Moody's are thinking about cutting Ambac Assurance. Fitch stripped Ambac Assurance of its top ratings last month.
One way Ambac is raising capital is by cutting its expected quarterly dividend to a penny a share, from 7 cents a share previously and 21 cents earlier this year. The company is also not going to insure any new structured finance securities for six months, which should free up about $600 million in capital.
That is a little bit less than the roughly $650 million estimated write-down on Ambac's credit derivatives in January, but more than the $400 million that S&P said earlier this week Ambac needed to raise.
Ambac shares closed down 5.6 percent at $11.14 on the New York Stock Exchange.
(Additional reporting by Christian Plumb, Dan Burns, Karen Brettell, and Jonathan Keehner; Editing by Gerald E. McCormick, Andre Grenon, Richard Chang)
REUTERS
Hiring May Have Cooled, Factories Slowed: U.S. Economy Preview
Hiring May Have Cooled, Factories Slowed: U.S. Economy Preview
March 2 (Bloomberg) -- The unemployment rate in the U.S. probably rose in February as hiring slowed, and manufacturing may have contracted for the second time in three months, economists said before reports this week.
The jobless rate rose to 5 percent from 4.9 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department's March 7 report. Payrolls probably expanded by 25,000, short of the roughly 100,000 needed to keep pace with increases in the labor force.
Fewer jobs, rising fuel costs and falling property values are causing consumers to lose confidence and limit spending. The slump in demand is prompting factories to cut production, pushing the economy closer to a recession and making it more likely the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further.
``Hiring will slow in coming months,'' said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``The parts of the economy that are doing well aren't enough to offset the parts that are doing badly.''
The projected increase in payrolls last month would follow a decline of 17,000 jobs in January, the first decrease in more than four years. The pace of hiring over the past two months would be the worst start for any year since 2003.
Factory payrolls shrank by 25,000 workers, reflecting automakers' efforts to trim costs, economists project the jobs report may show.
`Potential Drag'
``Slowing job creation is yet another potential drag on household spending,'' Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in semiannual testimony before lawmakers last week. Other risks to the economy include the possibility that housing may deteriorate more than anticipated and that credit conditions may tighten substantially, he said.
Fed funds futures contracts show 72 percent odds the Fed will lower borrowing costs by three-quarters of a point to 2.25 percent by its March 18 meeting. A week ago, the odds were 2 percent. The odds are better than even that the rate will be cut to 2 percent by April 30.
Financial firms are scaling back employment as losses on subprime mortgage-linked products mount. Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm, said on Feb. 13 it will cut 1,000 jobs by shrinking its home-mortgage business in America and closing a U.K. unit.
The moves ensure the New York-based company is ``appropriately positioned for the environment going forward,'' Anthony Meola, chief operating officer of Morgan Stanley's U.S. residential business, said in a statement.
Factories Contract
Manufacturers are pulling back as demand weakens, the Institute for Supply Management may report tomorrow. The Tempe, Arizona-based group's factory index fell to 48 in February from 50.7 the prior month, according to the survey median. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
The worst housing slump in a quarter century is filtering through to services, which reflect almost 90 percent of the economy. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey shows service industries shrank in February for a second month, a slide not seen since the last recession. The Supply Management group's report is due March 5.
BLOOMBERG
March 2 (Bloomberg) -- The unemployment rate in the U.S. probably rose in February as hiring slowed, and manufacturing may have contracted for the second time in three months, economists said before reports this week.
The jobless rate rose to 5 percent from 4.9 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department's March 7 report. Payrolls probably expanded by 25,000, short of the roughly 100,000 needed to keep pace with increases in the labor force.
Fewer jobs, rising fuel costs and falling property values are causing consumers to lose confidence and limit spending. The slump in demand is prompting factories to cut production, pushing the economy closer to a recession and making it more likely the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further.
``Hiring will slow in coming months,'' said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``The parts of the economy that are doing well aren't enough to offset the parts that are doing badly.''
The projected increase in payrolls last month would follow a decline of 17,000 jobs in January, the first decrease in more than four years. The pace of hiring over the past two months would be the worst start for any year since 2003.
Factory payrolls shrank by 25,000 workers, reflecting automakers' efforts to trim costs, economists project the jobs report may show.
`Potential Drag'
``Slowing job creation is yet another potential drag on household spending,'' Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in semiannual testimony before lawmakers last week. Other risks to the economy include the possibility that housing may deteriorate more than anticipated and that credit conditions may tighten substantially, he said.
Fed funds futures contracts show 72 percent odds the Fed will lower borrowing costs by three-quarters of a point to 2.25 percent by its March 18 meeting. A week ago, the odds were 2 percent. The odds are better than even that the rate will be cut to 2 percent by April 30.
Financial firms are scaling back employment as losses on subprime mortgage-linked products mount. Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm, said on Feb. 13 it will cut 1,000 jobs by shrinking its home-mortgage business in America and closing a U.K. unit.
The moves ensure the New York-based company is ``appropriately positioned for the environment going forward,'' Anthony Meola, chief operating officer of Morgan Stanley's U.S. residential business, said in a statement.
Factories Contract
Manufacturers are pulling back as demand weakens, the Institute for Supply Management may report tomorrow. The Tempe, Arizona-based group's factory index fell to 48 in February from 50.7 the prior month, according to the survey median. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
The worst housing slump in a quarter century is filtering through to services, which reflect almost 90 percent of the economy. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey shows service industries shrank in February for a second month, a slide not seen since the last recession. The Supply Management group's report is due March 5.
BLOOMBERG
UBS: ''Βλέπει'' ζημίες 600 δις στο χρηματοοικονομικό κλάδο
UBS: ''Βλέπει'' ζημίες 600 δις στο χρηματοοικονομικό κλάδο
Ζημίες ύψους 600 δις δολαρίων συσχετιζόμενες με την κρίση των subprimes εκτιμά η UBS ότι θα παρουσιάσουν στο σύνολό τους οι χρηματοοικονομικοί οίκοι.
Οι χρηματοοικονομικοί οίκοι έχουν ήδη παρουσιάσει απομειώσεις και ζημίες ύψους 160 δις δολαρίων, ενώ τράπεζες και ασφαλιστικές αναμένεται μέσα στο επόμενο διάστημα να χάσουν 350 δις δολάρια, σύμφωνα με τους αναλυτές της UBS.
Ο επικεφαλής της Ευρωπαϊκής πιστωτικής στρατηγικής της UBS Geraud Charpin τόνισε ότι η οικονομία θα υποφέρει περισσότερες απώλειες από όσες εκτιμούν οι αναλυτές, προσθέτοντας ότι όλα τα επενδυτικά σχέδια που έχουν καταστρωθεί στο πλαίσιο μιας υγιούς και ισχυρής οικονομίας θα πρέπει να αναθεωρηθούν.
Για του λόγου το αληθές, η AIG παρουσίασε χθες ζημίες ρεκόρ μετά τις απομειώσεις ύψους 1,11 δις δολαρίων, ενώ και η Λονδρέζικη Peloton Partners θα προχωρήσει σε ρευστοποιήσεις hedge fund αξίας 1,8 δις δολαρίων που οφείλονται στους περιορισμούς δανεισμού από τη Wall Street.
REPORTER.GR
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