Home Sales, Goods Orders Probably Climbed: U.S. Economy Preview

Home Sales, Goods Orders Probably Climbed: U.S. Economy Preview


April 18 (Bloomberg) -- Home sales and orders for long- lasting goods probably climbed in March, increases that enhance the odds the U.S. recovery will be sustained, economists said before reports this week.

Purchases of new and existing homes rose to a combined 5.63 million annual rate, the first gain in four months, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Bookings for goods meant to last several years may have advanced for a fourth straight time.

The advances in durable goods would be the longest since 2005, highlighting how manufacturing is at the forefront of the economic rebound as global demand strengthens. The improvement in housing, meanwhile, is more dependent on help from the federal government as buyers rush to beat a deadline to qualify for a tax credit, indicating the industry will take time to rally.

“Business spending does seem to be picking up and I think that is going to be one of the key elements for the expansion,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. On housing, “anything we get on the positive side would be an improvement.”

Reports last week showed builders turned less pessimistic in April and housing starts for March were at the highest level in more than a year.

Sales Breakdown

Sales of previously owned houses probably rose to a 5.3 million annual rate in March from a 5.02 million pace a month earlier, an April 22 report from the National Association of Realtors may show. A day later, data from the Commerce Department may show purchases of new homes climbed 5.5 percent to a 325,000 rate, according to the survey median.

The Obama administration in November extended a credit for first-time homebuyers and expanded it to include some current owners. The deadline for signing purchase contracts is the end of this month, and transactions must be completed by June 30.

“There is potential for sales to jump a bit” in coming months ahead of the deadline, said Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

After that, the state of the labor market, mortgage rates and developments surrounding foreclosures, which are depressing property values and adding to already bloated inventories, will determine housing’s fate, Smith said.

The outlook for factories is less ambiguous as improving economies overseas propel exports and rising U.S. demand prompts companies to update equipment and boost stockpiles. Orders for durable goods probably increased 0.2 percent last month after rising 0.9 percent in February, a Commerce Department report on April 23 may show.

Growing Exports

Sales overseas rose in February to the highest level since October 2008, the Commerce Department reported last week. Manufacturing last month expanded at the fastest pace since 2004, according to a national survey of purchasing managers.

General Electric Co. “saw encouraging economic signs,” in the first quarter, Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said in a statement April 16. The company expects results this year to be little changed from 2009 with “upside potential,” Immelt said.

GE now gets more than half of its revenue from outside the U.S. Immelt increased the research budget in total by about 7 percent and has said he plans to boost it more this year. In the first quarter, GE raised its research and development investment by 16 percent, Immelt said.

Shares Rally

GE has been the biggest contributor to the advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index so far this year, boosting the gauge by 4.3 points. The S&P Supercomposite Machinery Index, which includes Caterpillar Inc. and Deere & Co., is up 16 percent since Dec. 31, more than double the 6.9 percent gain in the broader 500 index.

A report tomorrow may show the economic recovery is gaining momentum. The index of leading indicators, a measure of the outlook over the next three to six months, probably rose 1 percent last month, a 12th consecutive advance, according to the survey median before figures from the New York-based Conference Board.

Finally, another report this week may show inflation is contained. Economists surveyed projected wholesale prices excluding food and energy costs rose 0.1 percent in March, the same as the prior month, according to the survey median.

Volatility in fuel costs, may have caused overall producer prices to rise 0.5 percent after falling 0.6 percent in February, the survey showed. The Labor Department’s report is due April 22.



Bloomberg Survey

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Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
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LEI MOM% 4/19 March 0.1% 1.0%
PPI MOM% 4/22 March -0.6% 0.5%
Core PPI MOM% 4/22 March 0.1% 0.1%
PPI YOY% 4/22 March 4.4% 6.0%
Core PPI YOY% 4/22 March 1.0% 0.9%
Initial Claims ,000’s 4/22 17-Apr 484 450
Cont. Claims ,000’s 4/22 10-Apr 4639 4600
Exist Homes Mlns 4/22 March 5.02 5.30
Exist Homes MOM% 4/22 March -0.6% 5.6%
Durables Orders MOM% 4/23 March 0.9% 0.2%
Durables Ex-Trans MOM% 4/23 March 1.4% 0.7%
New Home Sales ,000’s 4/23 March 308 325
New Home Sales MOM% 4/23 March -2.2% 5.5%
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source: bloomberg.com