Retail Sales Probably Rose in November: U.S. Economy Preview

Retail Sales Probably Rose in November: U.S. Economy Preview


Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers probably rose in November for the third time in the past four months, a sign consumer spending will sustain growth into 2010, economists said before a government report this week.

Purchases climbed 0.7 percent after a 1.4 percent gain the prior month, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Commerce Department figures on Dec. 11. Other reports may show the trade gap widened in October and consumers grew more confident this month.

Gains in sales show American households have survived the worst employment slump in the postwar era and are poised to join in the emerging expansion. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the labor market is moving closer to a period of job creation instead of losses, which may give the economy an additional lift early next year.

“Job gains are in sight,” said Ken Mayland, president ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio. “With employment increases, we can expect people to begin buying some more homes, cars, appliances, etc.”

A Labor Department report last week showed the economy lost 11,000 jobs in November, the smallest decline since the start of the recession in December 2007. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 10 percent from 10.2 percent.

The report showed “progress, but not good enough,” Geithner said in a Dec. 4 interview for Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital With Al Hunt.”

Geithner on Economy

“The key test is when you see companies across the country starting to create jobs and add to payrolls,” Geithner said. “We’re getting closer to that point -- that’s the important thing. The economy is now growing and growth seems to be gradually strengthening.”

Auto sales are improving even after the federal “cash- for-clunkers” incentives ended in late August.

General Motors Co., Toyota Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler Group LLC all posted November sales that beat analysts’ estimates. The seasonally adjusted sales rate was 10.9 million vehicles, up from 10.45 million in October, according to industry figures released last week.

Excluding automobiles, retail sales probably rose 0.4 percent after a 0.2 percent increase the prior month, according to the Bloomberg survey. A gain would be the fourth straight.

Holiday shoppers are turning out. Sales on Black Friday and the weekend after Thanksgiving advanced 0.5 percent as discounts on electronics and toys drew budget-conscious crowds, according to the National Retail Federation.

Electronics Sales

Best Buy Co., the biggest electronics chain, had bigger early-morning crowds than last year, said Brian Dunn, chief executive officer and president of the Eden Prairie, Minnesota- based company. He said shoppers would continue to see discounted pricing into the year-end holidays.

“You’re going to see great values throughout the holiday selling season,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Nov. 27.

TJX Corporation Inc. reported sales up 15 percent in the four weeks ended Nov. 28 from a year earlier. The operator of T.J. Maxx and other low-priced apparel retailers forecasts strong sales through the end of the year.

“We are confident in our momentum,” said Carol Meyrowitz, chief executive officer of TJX, said in a statement on Dec. 3.

Gaining Confidence

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for December probably rose to 69 from 67.4 a month earlier, according to the Bloomberg survey before the Dec. 11 release.

The economy grew at a 2.8 percent annual pace in the third quarter following four quarters of contraction that marked the deepest recession since the 1930s. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg early last month forecast growth will accelerate to 3 percent in the current quarter.

The recovery is spurring demand for imports. That probably caused the trade deficit to widen to $37 billion in October from $36.5 billion in September, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the Dec. 10 report from the Commerce Department. The collapse in trade earlier this year brought the deficit down to a near-decade low of $26.4 billion in May.

With global economies and trade on the mend, oil prices are rising. That helped push up the costs of imported goods by 1.2 percent in November, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Compared with a year earlier, import prices probably rose 2.9 percent, economists forecast. The Labor Department is due to release the numbers on Dec. 11.



Bloomberg Survey

===============================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
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Cons. Credit $ Blns 12/7 Oct. -14.8 -9.3
Whlsale Inv. MOM% 12/9 Oct. -0.9% -0.5%
Trade Balance $ Blns 12/10 Oct. -36.5 -37.0
Initial Claims ,000’s 12/10 5-Dec 457 460
Cont. Claims ,000’s 12/10 28-Nov 5465 5431
Federal Budget $ Blns 12/10 Nov. -125.2 -135.0
Retail Sales MOM% 12/11 Nov. 1.4% 0.7%
Retail ex-autos MOM% 12/11 Nov. 0.2% 0.4%
Import Prices MOM% 12/11 Nov. 0.7% 1.2%
Import Prices YOY% 12/11 Nov. -5.7% 2.9%
U of Mich Conf. Index 12/11 Dec. P 67.4 69.0
Business Inv. MOM% 12/11 Oct. -0.4% -0.2%
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