Payrolls Probably Declined at Slower Pace: U.S. Economy Preview

Payrolls Probably Declined at Slower Pace: U.S. Economy Preview


Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Employers cut jobs in July at a slower pace and the factory slump eased, indicating the end of the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression is getting closer, economists said before reports this week.

Payrolls fell by 325,000 workers after dropping by 467,000 in June, according to the median on 56 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of an Aug. 7 Labor Department report. The jobless rate probably rose to a 26-year high of 9.6 percent.

The figures will be a reminder that, even as Obama administration stimulus efforts gain traction, hiring will take longer to pick up as companies such as Deere & Co. and US Airways Group Inc. continue to cut costs. Estimates that the jobless rate will exceed 10 percent by early 2010 signal consumer spending will lag behind an economic recovery.

“The labor market will remain a headwind,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist and a partner at RDQ Economics in New York. “The pace of layoffs has slowed, but that’s not enough. Given an environment where growth is likely to be extremely sluggish, unemployment will still go higher.”

The U.S. has lost 6.5 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump in the post-World War II era. June’s unemployment rate of 9.5 percent was the highest since 1983.

Households see few signs the job market will improve. Tempe, Arizona-based US Airways said last month it will cut 600 jobs after the peak summer travel season ends in September. Moline, Illinois-based Deere, the world’s largest maker of agricultural equipment, said about 800 salaried employees will leave as part of a voluntary program.

Fewer Paychecks

Automatic Data Processing Inc., the world’s largest payroll processor, last week forecast full-year sales and profit that trailed analysts’ projections as the recession curbed customers’ spending. It gets about three-quarters of its sales from paycheck, tax and benefits processing.

“Our guidance reflects the uncertainty about the depth and length of the downturn,” Chief Financial Officer Chris Reidy said in an interview on July 30. “The pipeline of activity has picked up significantly, but CEOs and CFOs are still hesitant to make these investments.”

A report last week from the Commerce Department underscored estimates that the economy will pick up this quarter. Gross domestic product shrank at a 1 percent annual pace from April to June, less than forecast, after plunging 6.4 percent the prior three months.

Obama on Jobs

“We are still continuing to lose far too many jobs,” President Barack Obama said in a news conference on July 31 following the GDP release. “As far as I’m concerned, we won’t have a recovery as long as we keep losing jobs,” he said, and added that a rebound in hiring “won’t happen overnight.”

A record reduction in inventories over the first half of the year sets the stage for production to rebound, economists said. Companies including General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC, both out of bankruptcy, may benefit from higher sales and a boost to output from the government’s “cash for clunkers” effort.

The House of Representatives on July 31 approved an emergency measure to add $2 billion to the automobile purchase program after a burst of demand exhausted most of the initial $1 billion in less than a week.

Sales figures from the auto industry are due tomorrow. Increasing demand will contribute to the stabilization in manufacturing already taking place.

Manufacturing, Services

The Institute for Supply Management may report tomorrow that its manufacturing index climbed to 46.5 in July, the highest level in almost year, according to the Bloomberg survey median. Readings below 50 signal contraction.

The slump in service industries, which make up almost 90 percent of the economy, is also waning. The Tempe, Arizona-based ISM’s gauge of non-manufacturing businesses probably increased to 48 last month from 47 in June, according to the Bloomberg survey. The report is due on Aug. 5.

The GDP report last week showed consumer spending, which makes up about 70 percent of the economy, has dropped 2 percent since it peaked at the end of 2007 -- the most since the 1980 recession. A Commerce report on June 4 will give the month-by- month breakdown on spending and incomes for the quarter.

Economists project the economy will grow at an average 1.5 percent pace from July to December, according to a Bloomberg survey taken in early July. The survey also showed they forecast the jobless rate will reach 10.1 percent in the first quarter of 2010.

In other reports this week, orders placed with factories fell in June, economists predicted ahead of Commerce figures due on Aug. 5. A day earlier, the National Association of Realtors may report the number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose in June for a fifth straight month.

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