Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Probably Fell to Eight-Year Low

Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Probably Fell to Eight-Year Low

By Joe Richter

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell in October to the lowest level in at least eight years as loan restrictions and the prospect of further price declines deterred buyers, economists said before a report today.

Purchases dropped 0.8 percent to an annual rate of 5 million, according to the median forecast of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That would mark the eighth straight month of decreases and bring the pace of home sales to the slowest since record-keeping began in 1999.

Defaults on subprime mortgages have prompted banks to tighten lending standards, while foreclosures add to a glut of unsold properties that's putting pressure on home prices. Lower property values raise the risk that consumers will curtail spending, making businesses more cautious about investing and compounding a slowdown in economic growth, economists said.

``We don't see much light at the end of the housing tunnel,'' Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. ``This certainly will have an impact on consumer spending first, and given that business confidence is declining, we should see a pullback in business spending over the next few months.''

The report from the National Association of Realtors is due for release at 10 a.m. in Washington. Economists' forecasts ranged from 4.7 million to 5.2 million, compared with a 5.04 million annual rate in September.

Durable Goods Orders

A report at 8:30 a.m. from the Commerce Department may show the slowdown in real estate is exerting a drag on manufacturing. Orders for U.S.-made durable goods probably declined 0.1 percent in October after dropping 1.7 percent the prior month. Excluding transportation equipment such as airplanes, orders rose 0.3 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey.

New anecdotal information on the economy will come at 2 p.m. with the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a compendium of regional reports that will frame policy makers' discussions when they meet in December.

A private report yesterday showed home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 4.9 percent in the 12 months that ended September. That was the biggest drop on record for the S&P/Case- Shiller home-price index, which goes back to 2001, and marked the ninth consecutive month of declining prices.

Some economists say falling home values, by making owners feel less wealthy, may reduce consumer spending.

Fed Lowers Forecasts

The Federal Reserve last week lowered forecasts for U.S. growth next year. Policy makers now expect U.S. gross domestic product to increase between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent in 2008, ``notably below'' the 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent they predicted in July.

The projections, based on information up to Oct. 31, in part reflect a deepening recession in U.S. housing markets. Among private economists, the number anticipating a recession almost doubled in the past two months, the National Association for Business Economics said.

Fort Worth, Texas-based D.R. Horton Inc., the second- largest U.S. homebuilder, reported its worst annual results in at least a decade in the three months ended Sept. 30.

Chief Executive Officer Donald Tomnitz said on a conference call that 2008 will be ``more difficult'' than 2007. The record loss posted by Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. mortgage company, may further constrain the home loan market, he said.

A report from the Realtors' association on Nov. 13 showed the number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes unexpectedly rose in September after reaching a record low. The Realtors' index of signed purchase agreements increased 0.2 percent, the first gain in three months, the group said.

Still, the increase may not signal a rebound in existing home sales, according to Drew Matus, senior economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. The index of pending home sales doesn't capture cancellations of signed contracts, which have risen in response to tighter mortgage lending practices, Matus said in a note to clients.