Retail Sales Probably Increased in April: U.S. Economy Preview
May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers probably rose in April for a seventh straight month, pointing to a rebound in consumer spending that is broadening the recovery, economists said before reports this week.
Purchases increased 0.2 percent in April, extending the most successive gains since 1999, according to the median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Commerce Department figures on May 14. Other reports may show manufacturing picked up and the trade gap was little changed.
The biggest increase in payrolls in four years may be a harbinger of additional gains as employers become more certain sales will grow, which in turn will lift wages and consumer spending further. Electronics stores may have led retailers last month as Apple Inc. sold at least 1 million iPads.
“Retail sales are picking up because of income growth,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital in New York. “Consumption is going to be growing at a firm pace through the end of the year. We are in a sustainable recovery now.”
Cupertino, California-based Apple said it sold out of all three versions of the iPad 3g, which went on sale two weeks ago, at its retail stores in 13 U.S. cities.
“Demand continues to exceed supply,” Natalie Kerris, a spokeswoman for Apple, said May 6. “We’re working hard” to provide iPads to additional customers, she said.
Government Rebates
A remnant of last year’s government stimulus package may have also propelled sales of appliances last month, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Almost two-thirds of the $300 million the government allotted for state rebates on purchases of energy efficient appliances became available last month, Feroli said in a May 3 note to clients.
Florida’s rebate program ran out of funds in three days last month, while Texas and Illinois ran through the money in a day, he said. The incentives may boost core retail sales, which exclude items such as autos, building materials and gasoline, by 0.3 percentage point, according to Feroli.
One reason Americans are spending may be that the employment outlook is brightening. Payrolls increased by 290,000 in April, the most in four years, according to figures from the Labor Department last week. Unemployment climbed to 9.9 percent from 9.7 percent as thousands of jobseekers entered the workforce.
Less Broad-Based
The increase in April sales may have been less broad-based than in prior months. Chain stores reported the smallest increase in monthly sales since November, industry figures showed last week. Demand was dragged down by teen-clothing retailers Abercrombie & Fitch Co. and Aeropostale Inc., and an early Easter, which boosted March sales at the expense of April.
The debt crisis in Europe also raises the risk that tumbling stock prices may cause households to rein in spending. Shares have been pummeled the past two weeks, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping 8.7 percent since April 23.
“Clearly, a blossoming labor market recovery is a big positive,” economists Paul Ashworth and Paul Dales of Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto, said in a note to clients last week. “But if equity and house prices continue to fall, households will ramp up their savings to compensate for the loss of wealth, perhaps undermining consumption.”
For now, more jobs may trump the drop in stocks. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for May probably rose to 73.5 from 72.2 the prior month, according to the survey median. The figures are due May 14.
Factory Gains
Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy, continues to expand. A Federal Reserve report May 14 may show production at factories, mines and utilities climbed 0.6 percent in April, the tenth straight gain, according to the survey median.
The need to replenish depleted inventories, combined with rising business spending, is giving factories a lift. Stockpiles in the U.S. probably rose 0.4 percent in March, capping the first three-month gain since 2008, economists said ahead of a Commerce Department report on May 14.
Finally, the trade deficit in March was probably little changed at $40 billion, compared with $39.7 billion the prior month, according to the survey median before a May 12 report from the Commerce Department.
Bloomberg Survey
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Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
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Trade Balance $ Blns 5/12 March -39.7 -40.0
Federal Budget $ Blns 5/12 April -20.9 -20.0
Initial Claims ,000’s 5/13 8-May 444 440
Import Prices MOM% 5/13 April 0.7% 0.8%
Retail Sales MOM% 5/14 April 1.9% 0.2%
Retail ex-autos MOM% 5/14 April 0.9% 0.4%
Retail exauto/gas MOM% 5/14 April 0.7% 0.4%
Ind. Prod. MOM% 5/14 April 0.1% 0.6%
Cap. Util. % 5/14 April 73.2% 73.7%
U of Mich Conf. Index 5/14 May P 72.2 73.5
Business Inv. MOM% 5/14 March 0.5% 0.4%
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source: bloomberg.com
